Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Wed/8Feb2012)

Updated  130pm Wednesday / 8 February 2012

…. Clouds Continue On and Off as Pattern of Southwestern Upper Lows Continues ….
…. Rain Chances Up Again Late Week as Disturbances Move Overhead ….
…. Cooler Than Average Temps Now; A Little Warmer by the Weekend/Next Week ….

On this Wednesday… a southeastward moving cold front is now moving off the Texas coast  as high pressure builds southward into Texas from the plains states. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a northeasterly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather broad area of upper air low pressure disturbance is located over the Great Lakes states with a closed upper level low pressure area over the northwestern part of the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate southwesterly.

Surface high pressure.. to our north..  continues to dominate the area in the wake of the cold front that passed just before midnight last night. Clouds, which returned overnight, have shown signs of breaking up just a bit but I expect this to be quite temporary as the next upper level low pressure area (over northwestern parts of the Baja) has already reestablished over southwesterly wind aloft with Pacific moisture moving northeastward out of Mexico contributing to an overrunning pattern.

The overrunning pattern is expected to last through late week into the weekend with upper air low pressure disturbances moving northeastward over the area and helping to create atmospheric lift and instability tomorrow through Friday. I don’t expect it to be a washout, but, nevertheless, rain chances will be on the increase starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing through late week. Under the clouds and with the chance of precipitation, expect temperatures to be below seasonal averages.

A reinforcing “back door” (moving into Texas from the northeast) cold front will move into Texas on Saturday with some breaks in the cloud cover. I think we’ll see a slow warm up as a southerly surface wind becomes reestablished by late in the weekend into early next week. Clouds, however, will not completely move out of the area with a continuing rather slim chance of rain and rain showers.

As another surface low pressure area and cold front approach us for the middle part of next week, we’ll see a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of this week is high to very high (exact precipitation timing still somewhat a question). My forecast confidence for the coming weekend through the middle part of next week is still medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see clouds picking back up again. Lows around 40 with a rather light northeasterly wind. For tomorrow, expect a mostly cloudy sky with a few sprinkles in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s with an easterly wind becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel