High Heat Index Again Today.. Thunderstorm Chances Increase (Tu/01Sep2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 01 September 2020 ….

  
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Heat Index (Feel Like) Temps this Afternoon as High as 108 to 110 Degrees …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is approaching from the northwest. Given abundant low level moisture and increased atmospheric instability, I expect scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning later today mainly to our northwest and then more overhead late tonight and continuing for the remainder of the week.

(2) A return to a slightly more stable weather pattern with more abundant sunshine for the upcoming weekend. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are still expected.

(3) Longer range outlooks are now suggesting a general pattern chance which could potentially bring an unseasonably strong cold front into Texas by the mid part of next week just beyond the end of the seven day forecast period.  

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today..
Very high confidence (factor: rain chances northwest of area)
Tonight through Saturday..
Medium to high confidence (factor: rain chances)
Saturday Night through Monday..
High confidence  

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Tuesday / 01 September 2020

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after 4pm mainly northwest of the area with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 101. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly after midnight with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 98. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 96. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 76. Wind becoming light and variable.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 95. Light wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 95. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 74. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 95. Light southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 73. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 95. Light southeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 08 September 2020 through Monday / 14 September 2020…
Temperatures… Below to Much Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 September)…………………………….. 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (01 September)………………………………. 7:54 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 September)…………………………………. 7:08 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 September)………………………………….. 7:53 pm

High Heat Stress Temperatures with a Stray Thunderstorm Today (Fri/28Aug2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 28 August 2020 ….

  
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Heat Index (Feel Like) Temps this Afternoon as High as 110 to 112 Degrees …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable summer weather pattern prevails through the weekend and into Monday. An isolated thunderstorm may form this afternoon in the intense afternoon heat mainly north of Austin with gusty winds being the threat.

(2) By late Monday into Tuesday, we’ll see a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure move across the area. Given abundant low level moisture and increased atmospheric instability, I expect widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday under a partly cloudy sky.

(3) A return to be a more stable weather pattern with abundant sunshine and above average afternoon high temperatures for the latter part of next week.

(4) Longer range outlooks are now suggesting a general pattern chance which could potentially bring a cold front into Texas along with better precipitation chances just beyond the seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today..
High to very high forecast confidence (Reference any rain chances north of area)
Tonight through Monday Night..
Very high confidence
Tuesday through Wednesday..
Medium to High Confidence (Reference rain chances)
Thursday..
High confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Friday / 28 August 2020

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms developing with an associated lightning threat after 3pm in areas north of Austin; A 20%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 104. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 79. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 103. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Thursday / 03 September 2020 through Wednesday / 09 September 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 August)………………………………….. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (28 August)……………………………………. 7:58 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29 August)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset tomorrow (29 August)……………………………………….. 7:57 pm