TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 20 January 2014

TODAY /MLK DAY/…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise sunshine and unseasonably warm. High 74 to 78. Southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear and turning cooler as a cold front passes in the early evening hours. Low 39 to 43. Southwesterly wind becoming northerly 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine and cooler. High 57 to 61. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 32 to 36. Light Northeasterly wind becoming light east southeasterly after midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 61 to 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 43 to 47. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy and turning colder as an early morning cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 51 to 55. Northerly wind 12 to 22 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 32 to 36. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with a 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to a 20% chance in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 42 to 46. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain through 9pm.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Slowly decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 30 to 34. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy during the morning. High 56 to 60. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 41. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy and warmer. High 65 to 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 27 January 2014 through Sunday / 2 February 2014…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 January)…………………………….. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (20 January)………………………………. 5:57 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (21 January)………………………………….. 7:27 am
Sunset Tuesday (21 January)…………………………………… 5:58 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT Monday / 20 January 2014

…. Another Cold Front Due This Evening ….
…. A Dry and Stable Progressive Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. A Strong Cold Front with Precipitation Chances Showing Up Late Week ….

On this Monday morning…. a cold front is moving south southeastward through Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface high pressure is over the south and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure covers eastern Canada and the northern parts of the eastern two thirds of the USA. Upper level high pressure continues the northern and central parts of the west coast Pacific region. A strong upper level low pressure disturbance is noted well west of the Baja Peninsula and southwestern California coast over the Pacific Ocean. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 45 to 55 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues over the area. The cold front.. to our northwest.. will move southeastward through our area by this evening. As I’ve noted over the past week or so, with these cold fronts moving through pretty progressively.. or regularly.. it isn’t giving the atmosphere time for low level moisture to return from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, we’ve seen no precipitation lately and there is no rain in the forecast through mid week.

By Wednesday evening, though, another stronger cold front will arrive about the same time that we see the influence of the subtropical jet stream.. and it’s associated mid and high level moisture.. overrun the colder air. As upper air disturbances move overhead and create atmospheric lift, we’ll see a better chance of light precipitation Thursday into Friday with much colder temperatures.

As the upper level disturbances depart the area, a more stable and warmer weather pattern will develop by next weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high through Wednesday.. then falling to medium to high confidence for Wednesday night and Thursday into Friday (some question on precipitation amounts and timing as well as exactly how cold the air mass will ultimately end up being). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high for Saturday and Sunday.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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