Updated 845am CT Friday / 17 January 2014

…. Little Change ….
…. A Dry and Stable Progressive Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Friday morning…. a series of cold fronts has moved through or is moving through Texas with the first front off the Texas coast and second front moving southward through southern Arkansas and north Texas. Surface high pressure extends northwest Texas into the Pacific northwest. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep counterclockwise rotating broad upper level line.. or trough.. of low pressure covers the eastern two thirds of the USA with the main line of upper air low pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes states southward into the southeastern USA and the middle Mississippi Valley and southward into the central Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues over the area. With cold fronts moving through pretty progressively.. or regularly.. it isn’t giving the atmosphere time for low level moisture to  return from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is no rain in the forecast over the next seven days.

There are some indications of a little better return of south southeasterly surface winds and more low level moisture by late in the weekend into the early part of next week; however, the only thing I will mention, at this time, is an increase in cloud cover.

The next cold front will pass through the area by Monday night into Tuesday morning.. again, basically reinforcing the dry and stable weather pattern across the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high over the next seven day period.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel