Troy Kimmel Weather - Page 593 - Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

January 27, 2014 by troyk

Updated 845am CT Monday / 27 January 2014

…. Potential Winter Weather Event Late Tonight through Tuesday Night ….
…. Sunshine Returns with a Slow Warming Trend Mid into Late Week ….
…. Slim Rain Chances By The Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. an arctic cold front is moving south across Texas south of the Austin area. Arctic high pressure is centered.. to our north.. over the Dakotas and central Canada with widespread below zero temperatures south through Nebraska and teens southward into Kansas and Oklahoma. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are gusty northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive.. broad counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure is centered over the eastern and central Canada and covers the entire USA. Within this broad upper level counterclockwise upper air wind flow.. a strong upper air disturbances is over southern California and northwestern Mexico. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.

The strong arctic cold front has now moved well south of our area as much colder surface high pressure settles southward through Texas. We’re also seeing the influence of the upper air disturbance to our west as well as the subtropical jet stream which is causing mid and high level moisture to overrun the colder air. As the strong upper air disturbances approach us and move overhead and create atmospheric lift tonight into tomorrow, we’ll see a little better chance of light precipitation with much colder temperatures. As temperatures fall below freezing this evening, we’ll see the possibility of light sleet and snow with the possibility of patchy freezing rain; the precipitation will continue through the morning into midday hours tomorrow. Some very light snow and sleet accumulations are possible. As afternoon temperatures rise slightly above freezing, we’ll likely see the precipitation transition back to some light rain tomorrow afternoon.

As the upper level disturbances depart the area by afternoon tomorrow into tomorrow night, a more stable weather pattern will develop.. with abundant sunshine and a slow warming trend returning by Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

Clouds return with slim chances by the weekend.

Longer range guidance suggests another strong cold front will arrive early next week with some models suggesting another winter storm for the southern plains states.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today.. then falling to low to medium tonight through tomorrow (still some lingering questions on precipitation types – freezing or frozen – as well as amounts/accumulations and the associated impact). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high for Wednesday into Friday and into next weekend.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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TK’s Special Briefing….

January 27, 2014 by troyk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Winter Weather Update #2
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
7:50 am CT – Monday / 27 January 2014

… Possible Winter Weather Event Late Tonight.. Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night …

Current Area NWS Watches/Advisories/Warnings:

NWS Austin-San Antonio has continued their lower probabilities (20% chance) for this event and
they mention the possibility of “light accumulations on bridges and overpasses” locally for tomorrow.
They have not issued any winter weather watches/advisories/warnings for any of our local area.

NWS Fort Worth has continued relatively low probabilities (20% to 30% chance) for frozen
precipitation and has now introduced the mention of snow and ice accumulations of about a quarter
of an inch for the Temple/Belton areas of Bell County and the Rockdale/Cameron areas of
Milam County. They have not issued any winter weather watches/advisories/warnings for Bell
and Milam Counties.

NWS Houston-Galveston has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for most all of southeast
Texas including the Houston area/aerodromes.. to the east of our area.. for the 3am Tuesday
morning through 12 midnight Tuesday night time period. Notable is the fact that they’ve trended
down on expected snow accumulations across northern southeast Texas including the
Bryan-College Station area. The winter storm watch includes counties just to the east of our
area including Brazos.. Burleson.. Washington.. Austin and Colorado counties.

…. My Meteorological Thoughts ….

No real changes in my forecast thought.

We are continuing what is a low probability event… but could be a moderate impact event.

As much colder arctic air mass continues southward across Texas.. an upper level low pressure
disturbance is approaching the area from southern California and northwestern Mexico. By tonight into
tomorrow, as the low pressure storm system guides over the top of the colder surface based arctic air
overhead of our area, clouds will thicken and lower and we’ll see light precipitation.. in freezing or frozen
form.. develop over our area.

Given the latest forecast model data and NWS guidance, I’m holding on to my 20% to 30% chance
probabilities locally realizing that the greater precipitation probabilities and potential impacts will likely
be to the distant east of the Austin area proper. That being said.. we could still see impacts during the
morning rush hour Tuesday with light accumulations of ice and snow on exposed bridges and overpasses.
Be prepared that this is one of those situations where we may not be able to tell how bad or good the
morning rush hour will go until we get into the early morning hours tomorrow.

This weather system will move east of the area by late tomorrow night into early Wednesday; clouds
will break and precipitation will end quickly by the evening hours tomorrow. Sunshine and warmer
temperatures are in store on Wednesday.

That’s it for now… I’ll continue to keep you advised.