Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Special Weather Update
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
12:10 pm CT – Sunday / 26 January 2014
… Possible Winter Weather Event Again Late Monday Night.. Tuesday into Early Wednesday of this Week …
Once again this week, we’ll see cold arctic surface air move southward into Texas. After an unseasonably
warm day today, the arctic cold front will arrive in the Austin/IH-35 corridor area around 3am tomorrow
morning with temperatures falling through the day on Monday.
At the same time, an upper air low pressure disturbance will approach the area and clouds will be
thickening with overrunning – the moisture will be gliding up and over the surface based arctic air – light
precipitation beginning locally as early as 11pm Monday night.
With current forecast precipitation probabilities ranging from 20% to 30% for this event for any given location,
precipitation is likely to continue on and off through the Tuesday, Tuesday night and predawn Wednesday morning
time period. Temperatures will fall below freezing for the nighttime and morning time periods for those days with
temperatures.. under a forecast cloudy sky.. to only struggle to get into the mid 30s (maybe upper 30s)
during the afternoon hours.
Precipitation will end with the passage of the upper air low pressure storm system by mid morning
… My Forecast Thought …
Precipitation probabilities remain relatively low at this time reference this potential event.
Once again, we come back to visit the “P-type” (precipitation type) for this weather event. While there isn’t
universal agreement among the atmospheric computer models, the atmospheric column (the air all the way
up) leans toward frozen precipitation – i.e., sleet or snow — for the time period (especially daytime hours
on Tuesday) but we must consider some freezing rain as well given the possibility of some warmer air aloft which
is so common at 30 degrees north latitude. Forecast liquid water equivalent amounts for the event are about the
same (0.10″) to slightly more than last Thursday night into Friday morning (one model suggests up to 0.25″ of
liquid water equivalent). An important detail to remember.. atmospheric models are meteorological forecast
tools we use.. they aren’t gospel. I’m just presenting possible scenarios here.
At this point.. I see this as a low confidence, but potential moderate to high impact event if it materializes.
I continue to monitor this potential winter weather event and will keep you informed.