TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 30 January 2014

TODAY…. Clouds decreasing.. with plenty of midday and afternoon sunshine. High 60 to 64. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 41 to 45. South southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 70 to 74. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT….  Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 49 to 51. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles possible. Rainfall, where it occurs, will be limited to trace amounts. High 70 to 74. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northwesterly by late afternoon as a cold front passes.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with a 20% chance of light rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 41 to 45. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 54 to 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 44 to 48. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 55 to 59. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 45 to 49. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 of an inch. High 60 to 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph in the afternoon as a cold front passes.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 34 to 38. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny and cooler. High 46 to 50. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 6 February 2014 through Wednesday / 12 February 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (30 January)…………………………….. 7:23 am
Sunset this evening (30 January)………………………………. 6:06 pm
Sunrise Friday (31 January)……………………………………… 7:22 am
Sunset Friday (31 January)………………………………………. 6:07 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT Thursday / 30 January 2014

…. Sunshine Returns as Clouds Move East Today ….
…. A Warming Trend Into the Weekend ….
…. A More Unsettled Weather Pattern with Slim Rain Chances Over The Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. an arctic surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA. Low pressure is developing from Nebraska southwestward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure is centered south of Hudson Bay with one last upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. extending southward through the Mississippi Valley. Overall, however, the upper air wind pattern over the USA has become more zonal (west-to-east). As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

Clouds have once gain built back into the area in the overnight hours.. but should “burn off” nicely by midday today with a southerly surface wind with warmer temperatures through the remainder of the week.

With the approach of another weaker cold front late Saturday into Sunday, clouds return with slim chances over the weekend. The front will slip southward through the area late Saturday with an overrunning event.. with cloudy and cooler conditions and slim rain chances.. back behind the front Sunday into Monday.

A stronger cold front.. polar/arctic in nature.. will move down across the area Tuesday with colder temperatures to follow. The good news, though, is that precipitation should shut off before temperatures become critical.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today (some reservations about when clouds will move out of the area) then very high tonight through Thursday through Saturday. My forecast confidence falls to medium to high for the weekend into early next week.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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