Updated 845am CT Thursday / 30 January 2014
…. Sunshine Returns as Clouds Move East Today ….
…. A Warming Trend Into the Weekend ….
…. A More Unsettled Weather Pattern with Slim Rain Chances Over The Weekend ….
On this Thursday morning…. an arctic surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA. Low pressure is developing from Nebraska southwestward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure is centered south of Hudson Bay with one last upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. extending southward through the Mississippi Valley. Overall, however, the upper air wind pattern over the USA has become more zonal (west-to-east). As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
Clouds have once gain built back into the area in the overnight hours.. but should “burn off” nicely by midday today with a southerly surface wind with warmer temperatures through the remainder of the week.
With the approach of another weaker cold front late Saturday into Sunday, clouds return with slim chances over the weekend. The front will slip southward through the area late Saturday with an overrunning event.. with cloudy and cooler conditions and slim rain chances.. back behind the front Sunday into Monday.
A stronger cold front.. polar/arctic in nature.. will move down across the area Tuesday with colder temperatures to follow. The good news, though, is that precipitation should shut off before temperatures become critical.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today (some reservations about when clouds will move out of the area) then very high tonight through Thursday through Saturday. My forecast confidence falls to medium to high for the weekend into early next week.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel