TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 28 April 2014

TODAY…. Mostly sunny.. breezy and unseasonably warm temperatures. High wildfire danger. High 95. West northwesterly wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear and a little cooler as a cold front passes toward daybreak. Low 58. Westerly wind becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. Not quite so warm. High 82. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky.. cooler. Low 53. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 51. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Light wind becoming easterly 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 56. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 80. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 58. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy and breezy. High 87. Southerly wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 5 May 2014 through Sunday / 11 May 2014…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 April)………………………………….. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (28 April)…………………………………… 8:07 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (29 April)……………………………………….. 6:49 am
Sunset Tuesday (29 April)………………………………………… 8:08 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Monday / 28 April 2014

…. Unseasonably Warm Temperatures This Afternoon ….
…. Cold Front Moving Across Our Area Late Tonight into Tuesday Morning ….
…. April Ends on a Dry Note with No Rain in the Seven Day Forecast ….

On this Monday morning…. a deep area of surface high pressure /988mb/ is centered over eastern Nebraska with a cold front extending south southwestward across the Missouri/Kansas border then into eastern Oklahoma and north central Texas into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from moist air to the east.. extends from the front over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas into northeast Texas to the western portions of southeast Texas then into far south Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are west northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counterclockwise rotating negatively tilted trough (oriented northwest to southeast), or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from Nebraska into the eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a return of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are west southwesterly 70 to 80 mph.

Under a mostly clear sky, much drier air has pushed into the area early on this Monday morning with well above average temperatures expected. With breezy west northwesterly wind and a dry ground and the ongoing drought.. I expect high wildfire danger this afternoon into this evening.

By later tonight.. a cold front will arrive with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures to prevail into the middle and latter part of the week.

Southerly surface winds will return with a corresponding increase of low level moisture by Friday and through the weekend into early next week. Clouds will increase a bit with the return of late night and early morning low cloudiness.

Unfortunately, I do not see rain chances for south central Texas over the next seven days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today through the seven day forecast period.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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