Updated 845am CT – Monday / 28 April 2014
…. Unseasonably Warm Temperatures This Afternoon ….
…. Cold Front Moving Across Our Area Late Tonight into Tuesday Morning ….
…. April Ends on a Dry Note with No Rain in the Seven Day Forecast ….
On this Monday morning…. a deep area of surface high pressure /988mb/ is centered over eastern Nebraska with a cold front extending south southwestward across the Missouri/Kansas border then into eastern Oklahoma and north central Texas into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from moist air to the east.. extends from the front over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas into northeast Texas to the western portions of southeast Texas then into far south Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are west northwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counterclockwise rotating negatively tilted trough (oriented northwest to southeast), or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from Nebraska into the eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a return of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are west southwesterly 70 to 80 mph.
Under a mostly clear sky, much drier air has pushed into the area early on this Monday morning with well above average temperatures expected. With breezy west northwesterly wind and a dry ground and the ongoing drought.. I expect high wildfire danger this afternoon into this evening.
By later tonight.. a cold front will arrive with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures to prevail into the middle and latter part of the week.
Southerly surface winds will return with a corresponding increase of low level moisture by Friday and through the weekend into early next week. Clouds will increase a bit with the return of late night and early morning low cloudiness.
Unfortunately, I do not see rain chances for south central Texas over the next seven days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today through the seven day forecast period.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel