TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 02 October 2014

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 92. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes early in the evening. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Turning a little cooler. Low 63. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine.. less humid and cooler. High 82. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 55. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming easterly by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 57. Light east southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 83. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 60. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 09 October 2014 through Wednesday / 15 October 2014…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 October)……………………………………………… 7:25 am
Sunset this evening (02 October)………………………………………………. 7:15 pm
Sunrise Friday (03 October)……………………………………………………… 7:26 am
Sunset Friday (03 October)……………………………………………………… 7:13 pm

 

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 02 October 2014

…. One More Above Average Temperature Day ….
…. Cold Front with Thunderstorms Still on Tap for Later Today into Tonight ….
…. Cooler and Less Humid Conditions Tonight and Friday into the Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. a southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from central Kansas into a surface low pressure area over northwestern Oklahoma inti the Texas panhandle and then westward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strengthening/deepening trough of low pressure moving easterly from central Kansas southward into New Mexico and far west Texas. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is located from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico eastward to Florida. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

By later today into tonight, as the upper level trough over the central part of the USA continues moves eastward, the upper air winds will shift more west northwesterly and, as a result, the cold front to our northwest will sweep east southeastward through Texas and the local area with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected just ahead of and along the advancing cold front for the 3pm to 10pm time frame. Latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance indicates a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms for the same period in areas mainly north of our local area. Guidance additionally suggests that we could see one quarter to one half inch of rain as the front passes.

Cooler and drier air along with a clearing sky will prevail in the wake of the front late tonight and Friday into the weekend.

As the surface high pressure area.. behind the front.. moves into the southern Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly wind and a return to low level moisture by Sunday into Sunday night and into early and the middle part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence through the next seven days is very high.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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