Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 02 October 2014
…. One More Above Average Temperature Day ….
…. Cold Front with Thunderstorms Still on Tap for Later Today into Tonight ….
…. Cooler and Less Humid Conditions Tonight and Friday into the Weekend ….
On this Thursday morning…. a southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from central Kansas into a surface low pressure area over northwestern Oklahoma inti the Texas panhandle and then westward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strengthening/deepening trough of low pressure moving easterly from central Kansas southward into New Mexico and far west Texas. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is located from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico eastward to Florida. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southwesterly 30 to 40 mph.
By later today into tonight, as the upper level trough over the central part of the USA continues moves eastward, the upper air winds will shift more west northwesterly and, as a result, the cold front to our northwest will sweep east southeastward through Texas and the local area with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected just ahead of and along the advancing cold front for the 3pm to 10pm time frame. Latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance indicates a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms for the same period in areas mainly north of our local area. Guidance additionally suggests that we could see one quarter to one half inch of rain as the front passes.
Cooler and drier air along with a clearing sky will prevail in the wake of the front late tonight and Friday into the weekend.
As the surface high pressure area.. behind the front.. moves into the southern Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly wind and a return to low level moisture by Sunday into Sunday night and into early and the middle part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence through the next seven days is very high.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel