TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 31 October 2014

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 73. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 44. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more northeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Northeasterly wind early becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph by midday and afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 49. Light and variable wind.

SUNDAY…. Increasing clouds becoming partly cloudy. High 74. Light south southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with low clouds developing after midnight. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and more humid with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 79. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front moves across the area after midnight. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as the front passes.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few lingering rain showers before 10am then partial clearing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 73. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 51. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 73. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 07 November 2014 through Thursday / 13 November 2014…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

…. Time Change Coming Up ….
Central Daylight Time (CDT) back to Central Standard Time (CST)
at 2am on Sunday, 2 November 2014 when you should turn clocks
back one hour to 1am (“fall backwards”). We gain back the hour that
we lost back when we went from CST to CDT back in spring.

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 October)……………………………………………… 7:45 am
Sunset this evening (31 October)………………………………………………. 6:44 pm
Sunrise Saturday (1 November)………………………………………………… 7:45 am
Sunset Saturday (1 November)………………………………………………… 6:43 pm
Sunrise Sunday (2 November)….(CHANGE TO CST)………………….. 6:46 am
Sunset Sunday (2 November)………………………………………………….. 5:42 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Friday / 31 October 2014

…. Dry Weather and Cooler Temperatures into the Weekend ….
…. A Storm System with Better Rain Chances Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a cold front is moving southeastward from a low pressure area near Memphis, Tennessee to southeastern Arkansas and western Louisiana to the Texas coastal plains then into northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over the plains states. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving deep trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from southern Hudson Bay southward through the eastern half of the USA. Another strong trough of upper air low pressure is moving ashore onto the west coast. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are northerly about 45 to 55 mph.

As the upper level trough continues to deepen over the eastern half of the country, the cold front, supported by the strong northerly winds aloft, has passed through our local area and is now moving southeastward along the Texas coast.

In the wake of the front, a dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually below seasonal averages.. will prevail through Sunday.

Clouds will begin to increase Sunday as southerly wind return to our area. Longer range guidance suggests that another cold front will progress through Texas.. in combination with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. by the first into the middle part of next week. The latest guidance suggests that this system may be slower to move out of the area than we’ve been thinking with rain chances potentially extending even longer into next week. Our current data suggests that we could see rains of up to 2 inches for early next week.. however.. if the slower motion, as suggested above, materializes, our rainfall could be even heavier for next week. It’s something we need to watch closely.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Sunday. My confidence falls back to medium for the most of next week regarding timing of rain, the potential slowing of the system as well as the timing of the cold frontal passage.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
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