TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 10 December 2014

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Not as warm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10 inch. High 65. Light southeasterly wind.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 53. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 64. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10 inch. Low 51. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 56. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 68. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area around midnight. Turning breezy and cooler. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average an additional 1/4 inch. Low 49. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. A few clouds in the morning otherwise mostly sunny.. breezy and cooler. High 59. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to 40 to 45 in the city. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 60. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 17 December 2014 through Tuesday / 23 December 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 December)…………………………………………… 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (10 December)……………………………………………. 5:31 pm
Sunrise Thursday (11 December)………………………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset Thursday (11 December)……………………………………………….. 5:31 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 10 December 2014

…. Rain Chances Show Up Several Times in Upcoming Seven Day Forecast ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening “backdoor” cold front (moving in from the northeast) is oriented from the south coast of Louisiana northwestward through central and north central Texas then as a warm front from northwest Texas and the eastern panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma to a low pressure area over southwestern Kansas. A surface high pressure area.. behind this front.. is over southern Wisconsin. Another surface high pressure area is centered over Colorado and western Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are very light.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure area is located from east of Hudson Bay in Canada southeastward through the northeastern USA. Another upper air low pressure disturbance is moving east northeastward from the southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly about 20 mph.

The upper air disturbance.. to our west.. is continuing to weaken and move east northeastward with thickening and lowering clouds with a chance of rain locally in the forecast. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 inch or less.. according to the latest NWS guidance.. are expected through tomorrow with this passage of this weather system.

We’ll see clouds break with some sunshine expected by Friday into Saturday before another stronger upper air disturbance and surface cold front moves into the area by Sunday into Sunday night. This second weather system appears to be a little more dynamic with increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast for as early as Saturday night and then peaking Sunday and Sunday night. I expected, based on the current guidance, that the cold front will pass through our local area around midnight Sunday night. Isolated heavier thunderstorms may accompany this system with rainfall guidance suggesting upwards of 1/2 to 3/4 inch with the system.

It appears that a drier and cooler weather pattern will develop in the wake of the Sunday night/Monday morning upper air low pressure storm system and cold front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high today through Thursday night and again late Saturday through Sunday and Sunday night with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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