Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 09 December 2014

…. Another Sunny Day Ahead ….
…. Rain Chances Show Up Several Times in Upcoming Seven Day Forecast ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends from Texas northwestward into Colorado and the intermountain west. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light or light northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure area is located from Hudson Bay in Canada south southeastward through the Appalachians. A strong upper air low pressure disturbance is moving northeastward from the southwestern part of Arizona. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are north northwesterly less than 20 mph.

Even though surface based high pressure has settled southward into the area, residual low level moisture has resulted in patchy fog along the IH35 corridor (and the Balcones Escarpment) this morning. Morning visible satellite data shows the fog/low clouds are breaking quickly with sunshine and warmer temperatures expected across the area for the balance of the day.

By tomorrow into Thursday, the upper air disturbance.. currently over Arizona.. will weaken and move northeastward with clouds increasing with a chance of rain reappearing locally in the forecast. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 inch or less.. according to the latest NWS guidance.. are expected with this passage of this weather system.

We’ll see clouds break with some sunshine expected by Friday into Saturday before another stronger upper air disturbance and surface cold front moves into the area by Sunday into Monday. This second weather system appears to be more dynamic with increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast for as early as Saturday night and then peaking Sunday and Sunday night. I expected, based on the current guidance, that the cold front will pass through our local area between midnight Sunday night and 6am Monday. Isolated stronger thunderstorms may accompany this system with rainfall guidance suggesting upwards of 1/2 to 3/4 inch with the system.

It appears that a drier and cooler weather pattern will develop in the wake of the Sunday night/Monday morning upper air low pressure storm system and cold front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow with my confidence reduced slightly to medium to high Thursday through Thursday night and again late Saturday through Sunday and Sunday night with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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