TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 29 June 2015

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. High 91. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. High 90. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 92. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 94. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 94. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY/ FOURTH OF JULY/…. Patchy morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 93. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. High 93. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 06 July 2015 through Sunday / 12 July 2015…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 June)…………………………………………. 6:32 am
Sunset this evening (29 June)…………………………………………… 8:37 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (30 June)………………………………………………. 6:32 am
Sunset Tuesday (30 June)……………………………………………….. 8:37 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Monday / 29 June 2015

.. Rain Chances Continue into the New Week ..
.. Afternoon High Temperatures Closer to Seasonal Averages ..
.. Slim Rain Chances Late Week into the Fourth of July Weekend ..

On this Monday…. a weakening cold/stationary front extends southwestward across southern Missouri and extreme northwestern Arkansas and then westward across northern Oklahoma. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from the Texas panhandle into eastern new Mexico and far west Texas. Surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a weakened high pressure area, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere is centered over Utah with an unseasonably strong upper level low pressure trough extending southward from Hudson Bay across the Great Lakes states and the eastern third of the country. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light and variable or light northerly at less than 10 mph.

With the demise of the weak cold front.. that passed southward through our area late Saturday night.. a moist, tropical air mass continues across the area. With daytime heating combining with the moist, unstable air mass, I expect that we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms again today through tomorrow before rain chances diminish a bit for the latter part of the week.

It looks like a rather typical and benign summer weather pattern prevailing late week through our Fourth of July holiday weekend with afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages. I’ll continue with rather minimal rain shower and thunderstorm chances, but, at least at this time, I don’t expect a wash out.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel