Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 29 June 2015

.. Rain Chances Continue into the New Week ..
.. Afternoon High Temperatures Closer to Seasonal Averages ..
.. Slim Rain Chances Late Week into the Fourth of July Weekend ..

On this Monday…. a weakening cold/stationary front extends southwestward across southern Missouri and extreme northwestern Arkansas and then westward across northern Oklahoma. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from the Texas panhandle into eastern new Mexico and far west Texas. Surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a weakened high pressure area, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere is centered over Utah with an unseasonably strong upper level low pressure trough extending southward from Hudson Bay across the Great Lakes states and the eastern third of the country. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light and variable or light northerly at less than 10 mph.

With the demise of the weak cold front.. that passed southward through our area late Saturday night.. a moist, tropical air mass continues across the area. With daytime heating combining with the moist, unstable air mass, I expect that we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms again today through tomorrow before rain chances diminish a bit for the latter part of the week.

It looks like a rather typical and benign summer weather pattern prevailing late week through our Fourth of July holiday weekend with afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages. I’ll continue with rather minimal rain shower and thunderstorm chances, but, at least at this time, I don’t expect a wash out.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel