Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 17 February 2022
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
…. NWS/Austin-San Antonio has Issued a Red Flag WARNING
9amToday Until 8pm Tonight for Critical Wild Fire Danger ….
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) In the wake of the upper air low pressure disturbance that crossed north Texas in the overnight hours, a series of surface cold fronts will move across the area today. Windy conditions will combine with very low relative humidity and seasonally dormant vegetation to result in high fire danger today into early tonight. Skies will be clearing this morning as more stable air moves into the area from the west. A secondary cold front will cross the area by later this afternoon with cooler air following.
(2) High pressure will rebuild southeastward into Texas from the Rockies and Plains over the next 24 to 30 hours. This will allowing for a dry and cooler weather pattern to beginning later today, in the wake of that second front, through our upcoming weekend.
(3) Long range guidance suggests another low pressure storm system will be approaching Texas from the west with a return southerly surface wind as well as increased cloud cover and humidity by late Sunday into the early and mid parts of next week when another low pressure storm system and cold front will be crossing Texas. Rain chances begin a slow return to the area by early next week in advance of the mid week system.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting less than 0.25 inch of precipitation over the next seven days.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
—-
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 17 February 2022
TODAY…. Clouds early then clearing and less humid as a series of cold fronts passes. High 71. West southwesterly wind early shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Colder. Low 33. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 59. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 34. Light north northeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 71. Light wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40. Light east southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 72. Light wind becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then increasing low clouds late. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and warmer. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 80. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with a few rain showers. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 61. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 81. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 48. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 60. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 24 February 2022 through Wednesday / 02 March 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 February)…………………………………… 7:09 am
Sunset this evening (17 February)…………………………………….. 6:21 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 February)……………………………………….. 7:08 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 February)………………………………………… 6:22 pm