Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 12 October 2021
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Weather Threats Expected …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A warm front has lifted back northward through the area in the overnight hours with light rain, rain showers and a few heavier thunderstorms over the area.
(2) Another upper air low pressure disturbance and a series of cold fronts will move into our area today through Thursday with several rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier rain is possible at times as abundant surface moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and upper level moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean (which acts to “seed” the atmosphere to make the precipitation process more efficient) combines with atmospheric instability and atmospheric lift. The system overall appears to be a slow mover with potential of several inches of rain for our area. The NWS/Austin San Antonio has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for our area from 7am tomorrow (Wednesday) through 7pm Thursday evening.
(3) Most of the precipitation appears to be east of the area by sunset on Thursday as a more stable atmosphere returns to the area in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. A stronger cold front will pass during the day on Friday with much cooler and drier air with abundant sunshine for late Friday through our upcoming weekend.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting 1.00 to 3.00 inches.. with isolated totals up to 6 inches especially west of the area.. through Friday.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High confidence through Friday.. then very high confidence Saturday and Sunday.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 12 October 2021
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50% chance of rain, it will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50% chance of rain, it will average 0.25 inch. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some gusts.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning then becoming likely by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain possible. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50% chance of morning rain then 70%by afternoon, it will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat likely. Periods of heavy rain possible. Where rainfall occurs, given a 70% chance of rain, it will average 1.00 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning threat before 3pm as a weak cold front passes. A few periods of heavy rain before 1pm. Decreasing clouds late afternoon with a few lingering rain showers. Where rainfall occurs, given a 70%chance of rain before 4pm and reduced rain chances thereafter, it will average 1.00 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more westerly in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a few isolated rain showers before 7pm. Where rainfall occurs, given a 20%chance of rain, it will average trace amounts. Low 69. Light wind.
FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning threat as a stronger cold front arrives. Turning cooler and less humid. Where rainfall occurs, given a less than 20%chance of rain, it will average 0.10 inch or less. High 85. Southerly winds shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 75. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 50. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Light east northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 50. Light wind.
MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Light east southeasterly wind.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 19 October 2021 through Monday / 25 October 2021…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 October)……………………………………….. 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (12 October)…………………………………………. 7:03 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 October)……………………………………………. 7:32 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 October)…………………………………………….. 7:02 pm