Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 13 October 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Flash Flood Watch continues until 7pm Thursday …
… Thunderstorms will be associated with a lightning threat …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A strong upper air low pressure disturbance and a series of cold fronts will move through our area through Thursday with several rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier rain is possible at times as abundant surface moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and upper level moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean (which acts to “seed” the atmosphere to make the precipitation process more efficient) combines with atmospheric instability and atmospheric lift. The system overall appears to be a slow mover with potential of several inches of rain for our IH35 corridor. The NWS/Austin San Antonio has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for our area now through 7pm Thursday evening.

(2) Most of the precipitation appears to be east of the area by sunset on Thursday as a more stable atmosphere returns to the area in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. A stronger cold front will pass during the day on Friday with a few rain showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and drier air with abundant sunshine will prevail for late Friday through our upcoming weekend.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting 2.00 to 4.00 inches.. with isolated totals up to 6 inches.. through tomorrow night.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High confidence through Friday.. then very high confidence Saturday through Tuesday.

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 13 October 2021

…. Flash Flood Watch Continues Until 7pm Thursday ….

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning then becoming a little more likely by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain possible. Where rainfall occurs, given a 40%chance of morning rain then 60%by afternoon, it will average 0.50 inch or less. High 87. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat likely. Periods of heavy rain possible. Where rainfall occurs, given a 70% chance of rain, it will average 1.00 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning threat before 3pm as a weak cold front passes. A few periods of heavy rain and flooding before 2pm. Decreasing clouds late afternoon with a few lingering rain showers. Where rainfall occurs, given a 80%chance of rain before 4pm and reduced rain chances thereafter, it will average 2.00 to 4.00 inches. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southwesterly in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a few isolated rain showers before 7pm. Where rainfall occurs, given a 20%chance of rain, it will average trace amounts. Low 69. Light wind.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning threat as a stronger cold front arrives. Turning cooler and less humid. Where rainfall occurs, given a less than 20%chance of rain, it will average 0.10 inch or less. High 84. Southwesterly winds shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph and gusty in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 75. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 50. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Light east northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 50. Light wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 79. Light east southeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 53. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 20 October 2021 through Tuesday / 26 October 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 October)……………………………………….. 7:32 am
Sunset this evening (13 October)…………………………………………. 7:02 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 October)……………………………………………. 7:33 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 October)…………………………………………….. 7:01 pm