Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 11 October 2021
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Weather Threats Expected …
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A cold front and associated upper air low pressure disturbance has moved through the IH35 corridor overnight but the front is expected to weaken and wash out before it reaches the Texas coast today. Later tonight, in response to the next upper air low pressure area out west, the front will lift back northward out of the coastal plains as a warm front and then pass back north of the area.
(2) Another upper air low pressure disturbance and second stronger, cold front will move into our area by late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday with several rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier rain is possible at times as abundant surface moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and upper level moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean (which acts to “seed” the atmosphere to make the precipitation process more efficient) combines with atmospheric instability and atmospheric lift. The system overall appears to be a slow mover with potential of several inches of rain for our area.
(3) Most of the precipitation appears to be east of the area by sunset on Thursday as a more stable atmosphere returns to the area. The cold front itself will pass during the day on Friday with much cooler and drier air with abundant sunshine for late Friday through our upcoming weekend.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting 1.00 to 3.00 inches through Thursday.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High confidence through Friday.. then very high confidence Saturday and Sunday.
—-
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 11 October 2021
TODAY…. Becoming mostly sunny. Less humid. High 88. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Increasing clouds and humidity as a warm front lifts northward through the area. Low 70. Light easterly wind becoming light south southeasterly after midnight.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 30% chance of rain, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 90. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where rainfall occurs, given a 30% chance of rain, it will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning then coming likely by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 30% chance of morning rain then 70%by afternoon, it will average 0.50 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat likely. Periods of heavy rain possible. Where rainfall occurs, given a 70% chance of rain, it will average 1.00 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning threat before 4pm as a weak cold front passes. A few periods of heavy rain before 2pm. Decreasing clouds late afternoon with a few lingering rain showers. Where rainfall occurs, given a 70%chance of rain before 4pm and reduced rain chances thereafter, it will average 1.00 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more westerly in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a few lingering rain showers. Where rainfall occurs, given a 20%chance of rain, it will average trace amounts. Low 68. Light wind.
FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning threat as a stronger cold front arrives. Turning cooler and less humid. Where rainfall occurs, given a less than 20%chance of rain, it will average 0.10 inch or less. High 85. Southerly winds shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 56. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 51. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Light east northeasterly wind.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 18 October 2021 through Sunday / 24 October 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 October)……………………………………….. 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (11 October)…………………………………………. 7:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12 October)……………………………………………. 7:31 am
Sunset tomorrow (12 October)…………………………………………….. 7:03 pm