Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Unsettled Cloudy and Wet Weather (9a,Tu/19Jan2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 19 January 2021

  
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Risk with any Afternoon/Evening Thunderstorms …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A slow moving upper air low pressure disturbance and southeastward moving cold front is triggering the development of a slow moving surface low that will move eastward into south Texas and then east northeastward along the Texas coast. As a result, as the cooler air surface based moves in today, we’ll see enhanced overrunning clouds and rain chances over our area that will continue over the next couple of days.

(2) Another upper air low pressure disturbance will cross the area by Thursday into Thursday night with a warm front lifting northward into the area before another cold front sweeps southeastward through the area with rain chances continuing on and off.  

(3) A third upper air low pressure disturbance will cross the area by Sunday into Monday with clouds and rain chances continuing on and off.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting 0.50 to 1.50″ for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Thursday..
Medium Confidence Thursday night through Monday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 19 January 2021

TODAY…. Cloudy with rain showers likely and isolated thunderstorms by late in the day with an associated lightning threat as a cold front moves through the area midday. A 60%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″ to 0.50″. High 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers.  A 50%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″ or less. Low 47. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Patchy fog developing after midnight. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. Low 53. Light wind becoming light south southwesterly.

THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and warmer with a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly after midnight.  A 40%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″or less. Low 59. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before noon as a weak cold front passes. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. A 30%chance of rain in the morning; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″or less. High 72. Light wind becoming west northwesterly 4 to 8 mph by midday.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. Light northerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers mainly after noon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 65. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.05″ or less. Low 56. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 72. Light southerly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. Low 60. Light southerly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 73. Light southerly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 26 January 2021 through Monday / 01 February 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 January)…………………………………. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (19 January)…………………………………… 5:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 January)……………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 January)………………………………………. 5:57 pm

Unsettled Weather Pattern Developing Over the Next Seven Days (9a, Mo/18Jan2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 18 January 2021

  
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) After sunshine and above average temperatures today, an approaching slow moving upper air low pressure disturbance and southeastward moving cold front will trigger the development of a slow moving surface low that will move eastward into south Texas and then east northeastward along the Texas coast late tonight through mid and late week with overrunning clouds and rain chances returning to our area.

(2) Another upper air low pressure disturbance will cross the area by Thursday into Thursday night with a warm front lifting northward into the area before another cold front sweeps southeastward through the area with rain chances continuing on and off.  

(3) A third upper air low pressure disturbance will cross the area by Sunday into Monday with clouds and rain chances continuing on and off.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting 0.50 to 0.75″ for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Thursday..
Medium Confidence Thursday night through Sunday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 18 January 2021

TODAY /MLK DAY/…. Some low clouds early otherwise mostly sunny. High 71. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Thickening clouds with a few sprinkles and rain showers developing after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 56. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph turning more easterly.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms by late in the day with an associated lightning threat. A 60%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″ to 0.50″. High 65. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.  A 60%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″ to 0.50″. Low 47. Winds becoming northerly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 52. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Patchy fog developing. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. Low 51. Light wind becoming light south southwesterly.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and warmer with a few rain showers. A 20% chance of morning rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly after midnight.  A 30%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″or less. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before noon as a very weak cold front passes. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. A 30%chance of rain in the morning; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″or less. High 72. Light wind becoming north northwesterly 4 to 8 mph by midday.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. Light northerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 67. Light northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.05″ or less. Low 56. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 71. Light southerly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 25 January 2021 through Sunday / 31 January 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 January)…………………………………. 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (18 January)…………………………………… 5:56 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 January)……………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 January)………………………………………. 5:57 pm