Updated  930am CDT Wednesday / 11 April 2012

…. A Stable Weather Pattern / Little Change in the Overall Weather Pattern ….
…. Better Rain Chances Early Next Week As A Cold Front Moves Through the Area ….
…. Temperatures Expected to Continue Above Seasonal Averages Until Front ….

On this Wednesday… surface high pressure is over the central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends westward from the gulf coast of Florida and Alabama and then west northwestward into north central Texas where it becomes a stationary front and extends into a surface low in southeastern Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southward from the low into southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, a southerly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern USA with another along the west coast of the USA. Between and south of these two upper level areas of low pressure, a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure has moved eastward slightly and extends north northwestward from northeastern Mexico and Texas across Wyoming and into Montana. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate northwesterly over our area of Texas.

The stable weather pattern.. now in place across the area.. will continue through the next few days even though our south southeasterly surface winds will continue to increase low level moisture into the area.

Late night and early morning low cloudiness will be prevalent over the next few days with an overall mix of clouds and sunshine is expected into next week.

As I mentioned yesterday, rain chances toward the end of the week were looking less likely so I have dropped them completely from my forecast.

However, by next Sunday night and Monday, a cold front is forecast to move into the area with a slightly better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. The front will move off the Texas coast with slightly cooler high pressure builds southward into Texas.

My forecast confidence through the weekend is high with my confidence, especially regarding any rain chances and the time of the frontal passage for next Monday, increasing to medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly winds. For  tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds and patchy fog. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Updated  130pm CDT Tuesday / 10 April 2012

…. A Stable Weather Pattern / Little Change in the Overall Weather Pattern ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Late Week .. Better Rain Chances Early Next Week ….
…. Temperatures Expected to Continue Above Seasonal Averages ….

On this Tuesday… surface high pressure is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure area is over the northwest Texas panhandle with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southward from the low into southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, a southerly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern USA with another offshore in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the USA. over the northern and western part of the country. Between and south of these two upper level areas of low pressure, a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure has moved eastward slightly and extends north northwestward from northern Mexico and west Texas across Utah and into Idaho and Montana. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area of Texas.

The stable weather pattern.. now in place across the area.. will continue through the next few days even though our south southeasterly surface winds will continue to increase low level moisture into the area.

Late night and early morning low cloudiness will be prevalent over the next few days with an overall mix of clouds and sunshine is expected into next week.

Computer and manual forecast guidance suggests that our air mass will become a little more unstable by late week. I am not really excited about this instability and think that the chance of rain at any given location in our area is very slim. Nevertheless, I have introduced slim rain chances in my forecast for Thursday into Friday.

By next Sunday night and Monday, a cold front is forecast to move into the area with a slightly better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. If this front verifies, temperatures may cool a few degrees by next Monday night into Tuesday.

My forecast confidence through the weekend is high with my confidence, especially regarding any rain chances and the time of the frontal passage for next Monday, dropping to medium.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly winds. For  tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds and patchy fog. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel