Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Tues/10Apr2012)

Updated  130pm CDT Tuesday / 10 April 2012

…. A Stable Weather Pattern / Little Change in the Overall Weather Pattern ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Late Week .. Better Rain Chances Early Next Week ….
…. Temperatures Expected to Continue Above Seasonal Averages ….

On this Tuesday… surface high pressure is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure area is over the northwest Texas panhandle with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southward from the low into southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, a southerly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern USA with another offshore in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the USA. over the northern and western part of the country. Between and south of these two upper level areas of low pressure, a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure has moved eastward slightly and extends north northwestward from northern Mexico and west Texas across Utah and into Idaho and Montana. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area of Texas.

The stable weather pattern.. now in place across the area.. will continue through the next few days even though our south southeasterly surface winds will continue to increase low level moisture into the area.

Late night and early morning low cloudiness will be prevalent over the next few days with an overall mix of clouds and sunshine is expected into next week.

Computer and manual forecast guidance suggests that our air mass will become a little more unstable by late week. I am not really excited about this instability and think that the chance of rain at any given location in our area is very slim. Nevertheless, I have introduced slim rain chances in my forecast for Thursday into Friday.

By next Sunday night and Monday, a cold front is forecast to move into the area with a slightly better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. If this front verifies, temperatures may cool a few degrees by next Monday night into Tuesday.

My forecast confidence through the weekend is high with my confidence, especially regarding any rain chances and the time of the frontal passage for next Monday, dropping to medium.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly winds. For  tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds and patchy fog. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel