Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 18 July 2013

…. A More Stable Air Mass Taking Hold ….
…. Increased Sunshine into the Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. an area of high pressure continues from the Ohio Valley region southwestward into Oklahoma and northwest Texas. As a result, surface winds are east northeasterly across our local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper air low pressure area is over southwestern New Mexico.. southeastern Arizona and adjacent northern Mexico. An upper level high is over the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley region. A westward moving upper level low is over northeastern Alabama. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

A more stable atmosphere is starting to build over the area as upper level low pressure.. to our distant west.. continues to weaken and move west and southwestward. While the increase in sunshine will be noticeable, I’m still including a slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms today into tonight especially with daytime heating.

It looks like this more stable atmosphere will continue as upper level high pressure become more established across the area tomorrow into the weekend. I am a little more concerned today that the westward moving upper level low over northeastern Alabama may result in slim chances of rain tomorrow into Saturday but, at this time, I will not mention the chance of rain in my forecast.

By Sunday into the first half of next week, a much more pronounced area of upper air high pressure will become established overhead.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. and will result in a dry and stable weather pattern.

There are no tropical threats at this time according to the forecasters at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 17 July 2013

…. Clouds and Rain Chances Continue with Unstable Weather Pattern ….
…. More Sunshine by Tomorrow and Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. an area of high pressure continues over the middle Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley back southwestward into Texas. As a result, surface winds are east northeasterly across our local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper air low pressure area is over central New Mexico with an upper level high slowly building southwestward over the Mississippi Valley. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southeasterly 15 to 25 mph.

As upper level low pressure.. to our distant west northwest.. continues to prevail over the area, a moist and unstable atmosphere persists across our area. Again today, this is producing a moist and unstable air mass across the area with the expectation of more rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today.. tonight with reduced rain chances tomorrow. Today and tonight, clouds and precipitation will continue to hold daytime high temperatures to  below seasonal averages and nighttime lows to near or slightly below seasonal averages.

The latest guidance suggests that upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain could fall over the area over the 24 hours or so… very beneficial amounts given the ongoing drought across the area.

As the low level low weakens and continues to move out of the area and as the upper level high pressure over the Mississippi Valley builds back southwestward into our area.. a drier and more stable air mass will take hold beginning tomorrow and continuing Friday through the weekend and into next week. With the increased sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will rebound to near seasonal averages.

There are no tropical threats at this time according to the forecasters at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel