Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Monday / 15 July 2013

…. Clouds and Rain Over the Area ….
…. Unstable Weather Pattern Continues Through Mid Week ….
…. More Sunshine by Late Week into Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a complex area of low pressure continues across Texas with a weakening stationary front extending from eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas southward into northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex region to the Texas coastal plains and to the Rio Grande River near Del Rio and then northwestward to near El Paso. As a result, surface winds are east northeasterly across our local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper air low pressure area is over the Red River country near Wichita Falls with broad upper level low pressure covering all the south central states. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 15 to 25 mph.

The upper level “lid” on the atmosphere.. the upper level high pressure area.. has been moved west of the plains states as upper level low pressure.. to our north.. takes hold across the area. This is producing a moist and unstable air mass across the area with widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with abundant cloud cover. This pattern will continue through mid week with clouds and precipitation helping to hold daytime high temperatures to well below seasonal averages and nighttime lows to near or slightly below seasonal averages.

Latest guidance suggests that upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall over the area over the next few days… very beneficial amounts given the ongoing drought across the area.

As the low level low weakens and moves out of the area.. a slightly drier and more stable air mass will take hold late week through next weekend. With the increased sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will rebound near seasonal averages.

There are no tropical threats at this time according to the forecasters at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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