Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 16 July 2013

…. Clouds and Rain Chances Continue ….
…. Unstable Weather Pattern Continues Through Mid Week ….
…. More Sunshine by Late Week into Next Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. an area of low pressure continues across Texas. As a result, surface winds are east northeasterly across our local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper air low pressure area is over the Texas/New Mexico border west of Lubbock with broad upper level low pressure covering all the south central states. An upper level high.. over the Ohio Valley region.. is slowly building back southwestward as the west Texas upper level low weakens and shifts westward a bit. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 15 to 25 mph.

As upper level low pressure.. to our northwest.. continues to prevail over the area, a moist and unstable atmosphere persists across our area. Again today, takes hold across the area. This is producing a moist and unstable air mass across the area with the expectation of more rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 to 36 hours. Clouds and precipitation will continue to hold daytime high temperatures to  below seasonal averages and nighttime lows to near or slightly below seasonal averages.

The latest guidance suggests that upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain could fall over the area between now and next Thursday… very beneficial amounts given the ongoing drought across the area.

As the low level low weakens and continues to move out of the area.. a slightly drier and more stable air mass will take hold late week through the weekend. With the increased sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will rebound to near seasonal averages.

There are no tropical threats at this time according to the forecasters at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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