Updated 845am CDT Monday / 23 September 2013

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Saturday into Saturday Night with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure extends south southwestward from the St. Lawrence River Valley into Texas. A low pressure area is over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a cold front from the northeastern Gulf into the low then southward into the western Gulf. Another low pressure area is over eastern Colorado with a cold front extending southward into New Mexico.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are mostly light easterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over the lower Mississippi Valley. A broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is moving eastward through the Rockies. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern prevails in the wake of the Friday and early Saturday upper level low pressure storm system and associated cold front. The surface high pressure area overhead will continue to move eastward as the upper air low pressure disturbance moves east northeastward out of the Rockies. As this occurs, we’ll see a little reinforcement of the dry and stable air late tonight into Tuesday.

Thursday into Friday, with surface high pressure well to the east, a south southeasterly surface wind will become reestablished across the area with an increase in low level moisture.

By Saturday into Saturday night, a east southeastward moving cold front will move quickly through Texas with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area. Once the front passes by Saturday night, rain chances and clouds will decrease with plenty of sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday.

The tropics are pretty quiet with no tropical cyclone development expected over the Atlantic basin over the next 24 hours.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CDT Friday / 20 September 2013

…. High Rain Chances As a Cold Front Moves Into Texas ….
…. Still Watching the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure is over the eastern USA. A southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from Minnesota through Nebraska into Colorado and westward into Utah. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are east southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over southern Louisiana and the north central Gulf of Mexico. A eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southeastward from the eastern part of Montana and the western Dakotas into the Rockies. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.

Abundant atmospheric moisture continues over the area and will combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability and the approach of the cold front and the upper air trough to produce scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development over the next 24 to 30 hours. The latest guidance suggests upward of 2 to 4 inches of rain.. with isolated higher rainfall totals.. may fall over our area with this storm system and cold front.

By early tomorrow morning into midday, as the weather systems to our west move more overhead and to the east, rain chances and clouds will begin to break. A more stable weather pattern will develop by late Saturday with partial clearing, slightly cooler and a bit drier air moving into the area Saturday night and Sunday.

I continue to watch the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for likely tropical cyclone development over the next few days. There’s much uncertainty regarding the future movement of the system.. particularly considering the advancing cold front due across Texas Friday into Saturday. The latest guidance suggests that the developing system will not have much effect on our local weather.. however, I will continue to closely monitor this system.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel