Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 19 September 2013
…. Rain Chances On the Way Up As a Cold Front Moves Into Texas ….
…. Watching the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development ….
On this Thursday morning…. a surface high pressure is over the eastern USA. A southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from Minnesota through Nebraska into Colorado and westward into Utah. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are east southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over southern Louisiana and the north central Gulf of Mexico. A eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southeastward from the eastern part of Montana and the western Dakotas into the Rockies. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.
Abundant atmospheric moisture continues over the area and will combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability and the approach of the cold front and the upper air trough to produce scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development today into tonight. By tomorrow and tomorrow night, as the weather systems to our west move more overhead, numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will be the result. The latest guidance suggests upward of 1 to 2 inches of rain may fall over our area with this storm system and cold front.
A more stable weather pattern will develop in the wake of the cold front by midday Saturday with partial clearing, slightly cooler and a bit drier air moving into the area later in the day Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday.
I am watching the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for likely tropical cyclone development over the next few days. There’s much uncertainty regarding the future movement of the system.. particularly considering the advancing cold front due across Texas Friday into Saturday. The latest guidance suggests that the developing system will not have much effect on our local weather.. however, I will continue to closely monitor this system.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel