Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Monday / 23 September 2013

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Saturday into Saturday Night with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure extends south southwestward from the St. Lawrence River Valley into Texas. A low pressure area is over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a cold front from the northeastern Gulf into the low then southward into the western Gulf. Another low pressure area is over eastern Colorado with a cold front extending southward into New Mexico.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are mostly light easterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over the lower Mississippi Valley. A broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is moving eastward through the Rockies. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern prevails in the wake of the Friday and early Saturday upper level low pressure storm system and associated cold front. The surface high pressure area overhead will continue to move eastward as the upper air low pressure disturbance moves east northeastward out of the Rockies. As this occurs, we’ll see a little reinforcement of the dry and stable air late tonight into Tuesday.

Thursday into Friday, with surface high pressure well to the east, a south southeasterly surface wind will become reestablished across the area with an increase in low level moisture.

By Saturday into Saturday night, a east southeastward moving cold front will move quickly through Texas with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area. Once the front passes by Saturday night, rain chances and clouds will decrease with plenty of sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday.

The tropics are pretty quiet with no tropical cyclone development expected over the Atlantic basin over the next 24 hours.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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