Updated 845am CT Monday / 16 December 2013

…. Drier Weather.. Sunshine.. Warming Trend for the First Half of New Week ….
…. Clouds and Humidity Picks Up with Slim Rain Chances Late Week into Weekend ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is centered over the western portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. Another surface high is over eastern Utah. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure separates the two and extends southward from western Kansas into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough is over eastern Canada and the eastern half of the USA.  Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over the Pacific Ocean well west southwest of the southern California coast. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues with abundant sunshine expected over the next few days with temperatures slowly warming up.

By Wednesday through the latter part of the week, southerly surface winds will return low level moisture with clouds becoming more common with late night and early morning low clouds and light drizzle possible particularly Thursday and Friday morning.

The upper air disturbance off the California coast will move eastward into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States by late in the week and then pass over the area with a slim chance of rain. About the same time the disturbance moves by, another cold front will settle southward into the area with some overrunning clouds and rainfall possible later Saturday through Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through Wednesday. For the last half of the weekend through the weekend, my forecast confidence falls to medium (exact timing of rain, exact rain chances and the timing of the cold front still a big question).

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT Friday / 13 December 2013

…. Clouds and Rain Chances Continue Today As Upper Air Disturbance Passes ….
…. Drier Weather.. Sunshine.. Warming Trend for the Weekend into Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is centered over the Appalachians. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are variable across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low over eastern Canada and the eastern half of the USA continues to flatten and to move slowly eastward. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is moving eastward over New Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly 45 to 55 mph.

As the large area of modified surface arctic high pressure continues to move hold over the eastern half of the USA, an upper level low.. over New Mexico.. is moving eastward and has increased overrunning clouds and rain chances that will continue into later this afternoon and this evening. Unlike the last week, though, temperatures will be above freezing with precipitation remaining in liquid form.

Once the upper air disturbance passes by tonight into Saturday, we’ll see the clouds break and the precipitation chances drop from the forecast. With the increased sunshine over the weekend and into next week, we’ll see daytime high temperatures warm but still remain below seasonal averages for this time of year.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high today. For tonight and tomorrow into next week, my forecast confidence rises back to very high.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel