Updated 845am CT Friday / 13 December 2013

…. Clouds and Rain Chances Continue Today As Upper Air Disturbance Passes ….
…. Drier Weather.. Sunshine.. Warming Trend for the Weekend into Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is centered over the Appalachians. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are variable across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low over eastern Canada and the eastern half of the USA continues to flatten and to move slowly eastward. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is moving eastward over New Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly 45 to 55 mph.

As the large area of modified surface arctic high pressure continues to move hold over the eastern half of the USA, an upper level low.. over New Mexico.. is moving eastward and has increased overrunning clouds and rain chances that will continue into later this afternoon and this evening. Unlike the last week, though, temperatures will be above freezing with precipitation remaining in liquid form.

Once the upper air disturbance passes by tonight into Saturday, we’ll see the clouds break and the precipitation chances drop from the forecast. With the increased sunshine over the weekend and into next week, we’ll see daytime high temperatures warm but still remain below seasonal averages for this time of year.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high today. For tonight and tomorrow into next week, my forecast confidence rises back to very high.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel