Updated 845am CT Tuesday / 10 December 2013
…. Arctic Air Mass Hold Across Texas ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Again Late Week ….
On this Tuesday morning…. an Arctic surface high pressure area is centered across Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are northerly across our area in the wake of front.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an massive upper level low over Hudson Bay and an associated trough, that extends southward through the central USA, continues slowly eastward. This pattern, with the counterclockwise flow around the low, continues to support the draining of cold arctic air from northwest Canada down into the central USA. Another upper level low pressure area is located southwest off the southern California coast over the Pacific. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 65 to 75 mph.
A massive area of arctic high pressure continues to hold over the south central USA.
As the week progresses, the surface high will slowly move eastward but the cold air is quite dense and heavy so it will be hard to dislodge.
By late tomorrow into Thursday, the upper level low.. off the southern California coast.. will move eastward into northwest Mexico and will, once again begin to increase overrunning clouds and rain chances that will continue through Friday. Unlike the last week, though, temperatures will be above freezing with precipitation remaining in liquid form.
Once the upper air disturbance passes by late Friday, we’ll see the clouds break and the precipitation chances drop from the forecast. With the increased sunshine over the weekend and into early next week, we’ll see daytime high temperatures warm but still remain below seasonal averages for this time of year.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through today.. tonight.. into Wednesday. My forecast confidence then drops to high for Thursday into Friday (reference to precipitation chances). For Saturday into next week, my forecast confidence rises back to high to very high.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel