PLEASE SEE…. weather.utexas.edu .. for my latest updates until further notice…

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #10
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
400pm CT – Saturday / 13 February 2021

… WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL AT LEAST 12 NOON MONDAY for
the Austin metro area.. The University of Texas and the IH35 corridor counties of
Williamson.. Hays and Travis …

… Significant/Historic Winter Storm and Bitterly Cold Temps Expected …

My Observations/Thoughts…

Not much change in my thought based upon the latest computer and manual forecast
guidance. FAA Contract Weather Observers at KAUS/Austin Bergstrom International
Airport have reported very light freezing drizzle (-FZDZ) with a surface air temp of 31 F
over the last hour. Light freezing drizzle is being reported in other parts of the city and
area as well.. this is only compounding the icy situation on elevated bridges and overpasses.

A series of upper level low pressure storm systems will traverse our area west-to-east
over the coming days; as each one passes, additional arctic cold air will be dislodged from
the plains and allowed to drop into Texas. As each disturbance approaches and moves
by. we’ll see wintry precipitation move overhead with additional ice and/or snow
accumulations likely.

There are still the three periods I referred to yesterday.. (1) today (Saturday) into tonight with mainly light freezing drizzle/freezing rain and perhaps a little sleet as well as a snow flake or two.. (2) Late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and tomorrow night into Monday which is still expected to have the greatest impact with the potential for heavy and accumulating snows and bitterly cold temperatures following.. and then again (3) on Wednesday into Wednesday night when we could see additional ice/snow accumulations with a third disturbance.  As mentioned in #2 above, in addition to the wintry weather, between tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday, bitterly cold temperatures will persist resulting in a DANGEROUS risk to pets/livestock/animals.. pipes.. plants/vegetation as well as to people – ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS for the homeless population of Austin  and Travis County. Low temperatures could reach the single digits to lower teens in the outlying and low lying areas.

One important thing to realize is that most of our local area did not reach above freezing today; it is not likely that, at least parts of the IH35 corridor, that we’ll see above freezing temperatures again until the middle and latter part of next week. A long and damaging freeze indeed expected.

My latest thoughts about Austin area snowfall accumulations late tomorrow into Monday, based upon the latest high resolution numeral forecast guidance, is to increase my estimates to between 2 to 4 inches; I also agree with NWS Austin-San Antonio that it is possible that we will see some isolated totals upwards to 5 to 7 inches in parts of the Austin metro area.

… Make Preparations for the Worse …

(1) Expect perhaps lengthy power outages. With the fragile and compromised state  of the electrical distribution system area wide given the recent ice storm (how many hours have some of us been without or with “on and off” electricity over the last few days??), please have cell phones, iPads and other portable computers as well as portable battery storage devices FULLY CHARGED. Be prepared to be without electricity at times over the coming days where the impacts  are the greatest. Remember, just because you have those things charged, you still may not have access to internet service. Remember, most us can create internet zones using our service from our cellular providers through our smart phones.

(2) Remember… with low temperatures by Monday night perhaps in single digits (05F-10F)..
Pets (Animals/Livestock)..
Pipes..
Plants (Vegetation).. and
People (Especially our Austin Homeless Population)
In any case, please check on your neighbors and friends and make sure they are doing OK through the next three or four days.

(3) Always (!!!) have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate when NWS
watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..

… Authority / National Weather Service – Austin/San Antonio …

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING...

.Bitterly cold air and wintry precipitation in the form of
freezing rain, sleet, and snow will impact the region Sunday
through Monday morning. The system could lead to major stress on
the region's infrastructure as well as cripple travel. The
coldest temperatures since 1989 will impact the region.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-223-141000-
/O.CON.KEWX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Gonzales-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio, 
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, 
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Brackettville, 
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart, 
La Grange, and Gonzales
222 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Light icing accumulations will be possible today through
  tonight and any icing on already frozen surfaces will quickly
  become problematic. A more robust system will arrive Sunday
  afternoon and Sunday night and bring total snow accumulations of
  1 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches near and 
  north of a Kerrville to La Grange line, and ice accumulations of
  around 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch.

* WHERE...Near and north of a Del Rio to San Antonio to 
  Schulenburg line.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to near impossible 
  across many areas late Sunday into Monday. Blowing snow in 
  some areas could reduce visibility and snow may obscure ice 
  underneath. Scattered power outages could occur, especially 
  across the Hill Country and Central Texas where ice still 
  exists from earlier rounds of winter precipitation.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bitterly cold air will combine with gusty
  winds to produce wind wind chill values of -15 to 5 degrees 
  Monday morning. These values can lead to hypothermia for anyone 
  stranded within the icy roads expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

&&