Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Complicated Winter Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Day; A Good Time to be Weather Aware (11a, We/10Feb2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 10 February 2021

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… A Very Complex and Multi Faceted Winter Weather Event Expected over the Next Week
with Bitterly Cold Temperatures and Associated Snow and Ice Threats Developing over
Texas and Our South Central Texas Area …                                                                                       
… All Interests Should Be Closely Monitoring Information from our Local NWS
Austin-San Antonio Office (…                                                                        
… This Event Will Ultimately Affect Pets/Livestock.. Plants/Vegetation.. Pipes and People and
Especially the Austin Homeless Population



(1) A cloudy sky continues as the stronger west-to-east oriented cold front, that moved through our area around daybreak yesterday, has settled well south of our area. The 2,000 to 3,000 foot deep wedge of surface based cold air overhead of the IH35 corridor will be overrun by a stronger series of upper level disturbances with rain, rain showers and a few thunderstorms becoming more likely this afternoon today continuing tonight, tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Fortunately, surface temperatures will be above critical levels on the IH35 corridor when precipitation is falling.. this may more of a borderline situation for our adjacent higher elevation Texas Hill Country areas tonight into early tomorrow so let’s continue to monitor. Importantly, as the last upper air disturbance departs to the east by late tomorrow into tomorrow night, this will allow an additional push of arctic air to push in the area as precipitation ends tomorrow evening.

(2) In the late Thursday night into Saturday night time period, indications are that we’ll see clouds continue to hold over the area as even colder arctic air continues to press southward into our area.

(3) In a fairly recent development, with that additional colder air in place, another weaker upper air low pressure will move across the area Saturday during the day. I would not be surprised to see a few periods of very light rain, sleet or even a few snow flakes on Saturday as this disturbance passes. At this point, I do not anticipate any problems with this period of precipitation. As this disturbance passes, once again, the colder air at the surface will be even more reinforced from the arctic air over the plains. Look for lows well into the 20s Saturday night.

(4) By later Sunday into Monday, there are indications that another much stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will traverse the area from west to east with thickened cloud cover and the chance of precipitation. This will occur with high temperatures only in the 30s and lows well into the 20s; given this expected mostly below freezing atmospheric temperature profile, I will indicate a light snow/sleet mix or light snow for Sunday night into Monday although some freezing rain/freezing drizzle cannot be discounted. Some ice/snow accumulations are possible especially in the nighttime hours Sunday night into the afternoon hours on Monday. As this disturbance passes, some of the coldest air in the plains states will be allowed to drop into Texas.

(5) As skies partially clear, I expect low temperatures to fall into the teens area wide Monday night into Tuesday morning with highs on Tuesday afternoon recovering only into the upper 30s to near 40 at most.

(6) A last point, in the period beyond our seven day forecast period and with admittedly LOW forecast confidence, another upper level low pressure disturbance is forecast by some of the longer range forecast guidance for late Wednesday into Thursday of next week with perhaps an additional shot of wintry weather but it’s way too early to offer any details.   

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting 1.00″ to 1.50″ rainfall or liquid equivalent for the IH35 corridor.

High Confidence through Saturday Night..
Medium Confidence Sunday through Tuesday..


Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 10 February 2021

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with a few rain showers developing to our west by midday then scattered rain showers by afternoon. A 20% chance of midday rain then rain chances increasing to 40% by late afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 45. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain and rain showers. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″ or less. Low 36. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with rain.. rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″ to 0.50″. High 45. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT….Cloudy with rain chances diminishing by midnight. Turning colder. Rain chances decreasing to 20%by midnight. Low 33. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 44. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 32. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy. A few light sprinkles developing with possible sleet or a snow flake or two mixed. A 20%chance of precipitation; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. No sleet/snow accumulations expected. High 40. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and colder with a hard freeze area wide. Low 24. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cold. High 35. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with some patchy light snow/sleet developing. A 50% chance of precipitation after midnight; liquid rainfall equivalent would be 0.05″ or less. Some snow/sleet accumulations possible late. Low 22. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY / WASHINGTON’S BIRTHDAY…. Cloudy with patchy light snow/sleet into the afternoon. Decreasing clouds by mid into late afternoon. A 60% chance of precipitation before 2pm; liquid rainfall equivalent would be 0.10″ or less. Snow/sleet accumulations possible. High 33. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and unseasonably cold with a hard/damaging freeze area wide. Protect pets.. pipes.. plants and people. Low 17. Light northeast wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 40. Light east northeasterly wind.

Valid Tuesday / 16 February 2021 through Monday / 22 February 2021…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

Sunrise this morning (10 February)…………………………………. 7:15 am
Sunset this evening (10 February)…………………………………… 6:16 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 February)……………………………………… 7:14 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 February)………………………………………. 6:16 pm