Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 January 2017
… Unsettled Weather Continues …
… Several Upper Level Systems and Cold Fronts Over Next Seven Days …
… Rain Chances Come and Go over the Next Seven Days …
On this Wednesday… a stationary front extends southwestward from northern Georgia into southwestern Louisiana to along the Texas coast. As a result of the surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure disturbance is moving northeastward over northern and northeastern New Mexico. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southwesterly at 50 to 55 mph.
The upper level disturbance, to our distant northwest over northern New Mexico, is moving northeastward and with it parent counterclockwise circulation, a few upper air disturbances continue to move across the area from the southwest. Precipitation has taken a break at mid morning over the Austin metro and IH35 corridor area but there are still a couple of disturbances that could trigger more rain showers and evening thunderstorms in the overrunning pattern going on overhead through the afternoon into the evening.
With the system moving away from the area beginning tonight, we’ll see skies partially clear with warmer temperatures expected tomorrow through Friday and the first part of the upcoming weekend with only minimal precipitation chances as the front approaches Saturday night.
A strong dynamic low pressure storm system and surface cold front will arrive across the IH35 corridor by late Saturday night into early Sunday but I expect little in the way of clouds and precipitation with the passage of the system. One item of concern is the very strong pressure gradient that, according to atmospheric model guidance, will accompany the system. Current thought is that, in the wake of the cold front early Sunday, our northwesterly winds may gust up to 35 to 45 mph with even some higher gusts. It is something we will need to watch closely in the coming days.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 18 January 2017
TODAY…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 61. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain early decreasing to 20% by midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Some patchy fog after midnight. Low 53. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm overnight.
THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy in the morning and mostly sunny in the afternoon. Much warmer. High 74. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with some patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 53. Light southerly wind.
FRIDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 75. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. Light southerly wind.
SATURDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and continued unseasonably warm. High 76. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 51. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny.. windy and cooler. High 66. Northerly wind 25 to 35 mph with some gusts to above 45 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph late.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 42. Light northeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light easterly wind early becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 25 January 2017 through Tuesday / 31 January 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18Jan)…………………………………………….. 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (18 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:56 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:57 pm