Updated 915am CT – Friday / 13 January 2017
… Unsettled Weekend Weather…
… Storm System with Good Chance of Rain By Late Weekend into Next Week …
On this Friday… a stationary front extends westward from eastern Alabama into central and northern Mississippi through southern Arkansas into a weak surface low over the ArkLaTex region. From the low, a stationary front continues southwestward into central Texas then westward into west Texas and then northward through eastern New Mexico into Colorado. As a result of the surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level ridge, or line, of high pressure is over the north northeastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the Atlantic Ocean. An upper level low pressure area is over Hudson Bay. A strong upper level low pressure area is located over the eastern Pacific Ocean west of Los Angeles; it is embedded within a deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure along and offshore of the west coast of the USA. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southerly at about 20 mph.
Increased low level moisture and increased instability have become more apparent over the last 24 hours as a surface cold front to our north has moved southward and pulled up stationary just to the north of our area. A weak disturbance this morning has triggered a relatively small area of moderate to heavy rain showers that has moved northward over the area producing rainfall in some of the area upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch.
The front, to our north, will not move any further south and will, in fact, start returning northward as a warm front in response to the slow approach of the dynamic upper air storm system just off the coast of southern California. As a result, we’ll see more cloudiness, increased humidity and slowly increasing rain chances into the weekend.
By late Sunday into early Monday, the main chunk of the upper level low pressure storm system will pass northeastward to our distant west and north. As this occurs, a surface cold front will be supported in its movement to the southeast and into our area by early Monday. All of this will create a more dynamic lift in the atmosphere as it moves through a more unstable air mass. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are likely in the late Sunday into Monday time period with the potential locally of several inches of rain. In addition, there will be a risk of stronger thunderstorms over parts of Texas with the greatest risk in areas distant west through north of the Austin area in the area of better dynamic lift associated with the lift of the upper air disturbance as it moves northeastward and surface cold front as it moves southeastward.
While the surface front will move east of the area my midday Monday, it is likely that clouds and precipitation will continue back behind the front late Monday into Tuesday with partial clearing expected by Wednesday. At the same time, there’s considerable uncertainty about exactly how far the front will move east of the area due to the fact that a bit of the upper air low pressure storm system will be left behind over the southwestern USA. If that part of my forecast verifies, then that disturbance could be a factor as it approaches the area with another surface cold front by next Thursday. Based on that, I expect rain and thunderstorm chances to go up again as that system approaches and moves through by the latter part of next week.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 13 January 2017
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 77. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 64. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. by afternoon. A 40% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 50% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk.. becoming likely. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall amounts will average 1/2 to 1 inch with isolated heavier totals. Low 61. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely.. with an associated lightning risk.. as a cold front passes by midday. A 70% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 60% by afternoon; rainfall amounts will average an additional 1/2 to 1 inch with isolated heavier totals. High 70. South southwesterly wind shifting west northwesterly 5 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and a bit cooler with rain showers and thunderstorms likely.. with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall amounts will average an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 50. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 60. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 45. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy late with a few sprinkles of rain developing after midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 48. Light east northeasterly wind.
THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 71. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 20 January 2017 through Thursday / 26 January 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 Jan)……………………………………………. 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (13 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:51 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:28 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:52 pm