Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 January 2017
… Unsettled Weather Continues …
… Several Upper Level Systems and Cold Fronts Over Next Seven Days …
… Rain Chances Come and Go over the Next Seven Days …
On this Tuesday… a surface low pressure area is over the Missouri bootheel with a cold front extending southward into northeastern Louisiana then southwestward to just north of Houston then into deep south Texas west of Falcon Lake. As a result of the surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure trough, or line of low pressure, extends southwestward from Minnesota into the southwestern USA then into western Mexico. At the base of this trough, a strong disturbance is moving northeastward over western Mexico. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
The upper level disturbance, to our distant southwest over western Mexico, is moving this way as a shallow cooler surface based air mass is settling southeastward in the wake of a weakening cold front over the Texas coastal plains. This is creating a textbook case of overrunning clouds and rain over the area with precipitation gliding northward over the top of the shallow (only about 3,000 feet thick above our heads) surface based chilly air mass. Latest observations indicate even a few cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes in some of the heavier rain showers. This sort of weather pattern will persist through tomorrow until the western Mexico upper air disturbance moves off to the northeast of the area. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible for the period between now and Thursday morning with below average temperatures expected.
We’ll see skies partially clear with warmer temperatures expected Thursday through Friday and the first part of the upcoming weekend. A stronger cold front will arrive across the IH35 corridor by late Saturday night into early Sunday but I expect little in the way of clouds and precipitation with the passage of the system. It will become windy with temperatures a bit cooler on Sunday.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 17 January 2017
TODAY…. A cloudy sky and cooler with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 80% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 58. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 48. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 61. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms.. with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Some patchy fog after midnight. Low 53. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm overnight.
THURSDAY…. Isolated rain showers before 8am.. otherwise becoming partly cloudy and warmer. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 72. Calm wind early becoming southerly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with some patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 52. Light southerly wind.
FRIDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 75. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 54. Light southerly wind.
SATURDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and continued unseasonably warm. High 76. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy as a cold front passes by midnight. Low 51. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny.. windy and cooler. High 66. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 39. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph diminishing late.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 January 2017 through Monday / 30 January 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17Jan)…………………………………………….. 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (17 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:55 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:28 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:56 pm