Updated 915am CT – Monday / 19 March 2018
… Critical Fire Danger Along the IH35 Corridor Today …
… A Dry and More Stable Weather Pattern for Much of the Upcoming Week …
… Low Pressure Storm System Approaching By Late Week into the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… low pressure is over the Kansas/Oklahoma border north of Tulsa with a cold front extending southward through eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas then southwestward into south Texas south of San Antonio then westward across the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. High pressure, northwest of the front, is over the Rockies and intermountain west. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are increasing northwesterly.
On the upper air map… within a generally zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern, upper air disturbances are embedded over northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas as well as over the Pacific northwest. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 60 to 70 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
In the wake of some thunderstorm activity yesterday, a dry and more stable weather pattern will remain in place over our area through much of the new week. This drier condition, given on-going drought conditions and dormant vegetation, will result in critical fire danger today into this evening as northwesterly winds increase and become gusty in the wake of our early morning cold front. A Red Flag Warning has been issued by the NWS/Austin-San Antonio from 10am to 7pm today for the IH35 corridor westward over the hill country.. you should be especially aware today of the critical fire danger.
By late Wednesday into Thursday, surface high pressure, and its associated clockwise wind flow, will move east of the area with a return south southeasterly surface wind flow across south central Texas.
Enough moisture will show up for noticeable higher humidity, an increase in cloud cover by Friday and even slim rain shower and thunderstorm chances for the upcoming weekend. At this point, however, I don’t see another cold frontal passage until sometime next week so any rain chances for Saturday and Sunday will remain, as mentioned, on the slim side.
Temperatures, in the wake of the cold front earlier this morning, will be a little cooler into mid week with a warming trend expected late week through next weekend. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall averages of less
than .05″ through the next seven days or so for south central Texas.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 19 March 2018
TODAY…. Critical wildfire danger. Sunshine. Breezy and unseasonably warm. High 85. West northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Cooler. Low 47. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 73. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 47. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light and more easterly after midnight.
WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 52. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy and more humid. High 82. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a low overcast developing after 11pm. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated risk, after 2pm. A 20% chance of rain; where that rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated risk. A 20% chance of rain; where that rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 63. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated risk. A 20% chance of rain; where that rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 79. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 26 March 2018 through Sunday / 01 April 2018…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 March)………………………………………. 7:36 am
Sunset this evening (19 March)………………………………………… 7:42 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 March)…………………………………………… 7:34 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 March)……………………………………………. 7:43 pm