Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

July 24, 2018

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 24 July 2018

… A Weak and Diffused Cold Front Moves Through the Area Early This Morning …
… Temperatures Still Well Above Seasonal Averages …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a weakening cold front extends northwestward from the north central Gulf of Mexico into southeast Texas to south central Texas between Austin and San Antonio and continuing into southwest Texas. Surface high pressure, north of the front, extends from northeast Texas northward into Nebraska. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are northerly.

On the upper air map… a broad ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, has settled more westward and is now centered over the desert southwestern USA. An unseasonably strong and deep area of upper level low pressure area extends southward from the Great Lakes into the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northerly about 20 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A weak and diffuse cold front has moved southward through the area this morning with a few rain showers over the IH35 corridor. After all time record high temperatures yesterday and record high minimum temperatures overnight, temperatures will fall a few degrees today and over the coming days while still remaining above to well above climatological averages. Now that the front is south of the area, the chance of rain has decreased for the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor.

I see little change in the overall dry and warmer than average weather pattern through the next six days. NWS guidance suggests that another cold front will move southward into Texas by late next Sunday into Monday. I will introduce very slim rain chances for early next week as the front produces atmospheric lift and moves into a more unstable and sufficiently moist air mass.

Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 24 July 2018

TODAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. A few afternoon towering clouds mainly south of the area. High 104. Light north northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Light wind.

THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY….A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front moves into the area from the north. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 98. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 31 July 2018 through Monday / 06 August 2018…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24Jul)………………………………………… 6:45 am
Sunset this evening (24Jul)………………………………………….. 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (25Jul)…………………………………………….. 6:45 am
Sunset tomorrow (25Jul)……………………………………………… 8:29 pm

July 23, 2018

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 23 July 2018

… Afternoon High Temperatures Peak Today with Record Highs …
… NWS Issued Excessive Heat Warning Continues Through this Evening …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a weakening stationary front extends southeastward from the Wichita Falls area east southeastward into east Texas and the southern parishes of Louisiana where it becomes a cold front from offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts and then extends northeastward into a surface low over eastern Georgia and South Carolina. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southwesterly.

On the upper air map… a broad ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, extends across the southwestern USA from central and west Texas westward. An unseasonably strong and deep area of upper level low pressure area extends southward from the Great Lakes into the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northerly less than 20 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Another day with record breaking high temperatures for south central Texas as upper level high pressure, or the “lid” on the atmosphere, settles more westward of the local area.

As upper level winds become a little more northerly, a weak stationary front to our north through northeast and east, will settle more southwestward into our local area as a very weak cold front by tomorrow. While it will result in a few more clouds.. perhaps even a few towering afternoon clouds.. along with temperatures being not so hot, afternoon highs will continue to be at or above the 100 degree mark through the next seven days.

I’m watching that potential for towering clouds tomorrow into tomorrow evening since any thunderstorm that does develop would have the potential to produce very strong.. potentially damaging, straightline down burst winds. At this point, I think the chance of rain is less than 10% for tomorrow which is so slim I will not mention it in my forecast below.

I see little change in the overall dry and warmer than average weather pattern through the next seven days. NWS guidance suggests that another cold front will move southward into Texas by late next Sunday into Monday. I will not introduce rain chances at this point since probabilities appear to be very low.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)

Updated 845am CT… Monday / 23 July 2018

TODAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 107. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. A few afternoon towering clouds. High 104. Light wind becoming northeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Light wind.

THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 30 July 2018 through Sunday / 05 August 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23Jul)………………………………………… 6:44 am
Sunset this evening (23Jul)………………………………………….. 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24Jul)…………………………………………….. 6:45 am
Sunset tomorrow (24Jul)……………………………………………… 8:30 pm

July 20, 2018

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 20 July 2018 … Afternoon High Temperatures Continue to Rise … … NWS Issued …

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July 19, 2018

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 July 2018 … More of the Same.. Plus More Heat … … Saharan …

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July 18, 2018

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 July 2018 … No Changes as the Summer Heat Builds … … Saharan …

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