Updated 915am CT – Monday / 23 July 2018
… Afternoon High Temperatures Peak Today with Record Highs …
… NWS Issued Excessive Heat Warning Continues Through this Evening …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary front extends southeastward from the Wichita Falls area east southeastward into east Texas and the southern parishes of Louisiana where it becomes a cold front from offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts and then extends northeastward into a surface low over eastern Georgia and South Carolina. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southwesterly.
On the upper air map… a broad ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, extends across the southwestern USA from central and west Texas westward. An unseasonably strong and deep area of upper level low pressure area extends southward from the Great Lakes into the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northerly less than 20 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Another day with record breaking high temperatures for south central Texas as upper level high pressure, or the “lid” on the atmosphere, settles more westward of the local area.
As upper level winds become a little more northerly, a weak stationary front to our north through northeast and east, will settle more southwestward into our local area as a very weak cold front by tomorrow. While it will result in a few more clouds.. perhaps even a few towering afternoon clouds.. along with temperatures being not so hot, afternoon highs will continue to be at or above the 100 degree mark through the next seven days.
I’m watching that potential for towering clouds tomorrow into tomorrow evening since any thunderstorm that does develop would have the potential to produce very strong.. potentially damaging, straightline down burst winds. At this point, I think the chance of rain is less than 10% for tomorrow which is so slim I will not mention it in my forecast below.
I see little change in the overall dry and warmer than average weather pattern through the next seven days. NWS guidance suggests that another cold front will move southward into Texas by late next Sunday into Monday. I will not introduce rain chances at this point since probabilities appear to be very low.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 23 July 2018
TODAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 107. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. A few afternoon towering clouds. High 104. Light wind becoming northeasterly 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Light wind.
WEDNESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Light easterly wind.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Light wind.
THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 30 July 2018 through Sunday / 05 August 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23Jul)………………………………………… 6:44 am
Sunset this evening (23Jul)………………………………………….. 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24Jul)…………………………………………….. 6:45 am
Sunset tomorrow (24Jul)……………………………………………… 8:30 pm