Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 20 August 2018

… A Weakening Cold Front Moves Deeper into Texas with Some Rain Chances ..
… Otherwise, A Dry and Stable Summertime Weather Pattern Continues …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a low pressure area in on the Iowa/Missouri border with a cold front extending south and southwestward into northeastern and central Oklahoma into the Texas south plains and into New Mexico. Behind the front, surface high pressure is located from eastern Colorado into the northern plains states. To the east, another surface high is over Florida and the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a deepening upper level low pressure area is over northwestern Missouri with another the Pacific northwestern USA. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues over the southwestern.. south central and southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly about 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The strongest part of the upper level high pressure are is shifting a little more westward today as the upper level low over northwestern Missouri deepens a bit. As the cold front, to our northwest, moves deeper into Texas and weakens, we’ll see relatively slim rain and thunderstorm chances today and tonight into early Tuesday. Based on the latest guidance, the weakening front should wash out and dissipate around our area and rainfall, at this point, looks to average 1/4 inch or less.

Upper level high pressure will restrengthen overhead for the middle and latter part of the week through next weekend with a dry and stable late summer weather pattern continuing.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

Follow me:
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 20 August 2018

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.. winds strong, gusty and variable around thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 27 August 2018 through Sunday / 02 September 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20Aug)………………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (20Aug)………………………………………… 8:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21Aug)…………………………………………… 7:02 am
Sunset tomorrow (22Aug)……………………………………………. 8:06 pm

Friday / 17 August 2018 Update ….

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 17 August 2018

… A Dry and More Stable Weather Pattern Continues …
… A Weakening Cold Front Moves into Texas by Late Monday into Tuesday …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… surface high pressure is located to our east over central and southern Mississippi and Alabama with another over northern New Mexico. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure extends southward from southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… an upper level low pressure area is over eastern Iowa with a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, becomes reestablished over the southwestern.. south central and southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northerly about 10 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Upper level high pressure continues to build over our area resulting in a drier and more stable weather pattern.

With the increased sunshine/less in the way of clouds, afternoon high temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages.

By next Monday night into Tuesday, as a weakening cold front moves deeper into Texas and approaches Austin, we’ll see rain and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast as the instability and lift in the atmosphere increases. According to the latest guidance, the weakening front should wash out and dissipate just north of the Austin area. Rainfall, at this point, for the period, looks to average 1/10th inch or less.

Upper level high pressure will restrengthen overhead for the middle and latter part of next week with a dry and stable late summer weather pattern continuing with any rain chances dropping by the end of the day Tuesday.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)

Updated 845am CT… Friday / 17 August 2018

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. low clouds late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy and not quite so hot with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 24 August 2018 through Thursday / 30 August 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17Aug)………………………………………. 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (17Aug)………………………………………… 8:10 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18Aug)…………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset tomorrow (18Aug)……………………………………………. 8:09 pm