Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Warmer Than Average Temps (For Now!); Cooler Temperatures Mid Week and Beyond (9a, Mo/08Feb2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 08 February 2021

  
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Risks Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As we start the new week, we continue in a warmer than average and humid air mass across the area with late night and early morning low cloudiness having returned in the overnight into morning hours. This will be the prevailing pattern through Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

(2) As a series of upper level low pressure disturbances move through the area Wednesday.. Wednesday night into early Thursday, a stronger west-to-east oriented cold front will sink down into our area from north Texas by Wednesday evening. For about 12 to 18 hours following the cold frontal passage, we’ll see the last of the passing upper level low pressure disturbances create a chilly overrunning pattern with continuing rain chances into midday Thursday. While the air will be noticeably cooler, I expect the coldest of the air to remain to our distant north and northeast.

(3) In the Thursday night into Saturday time period, in a much lower confidence forecast, indications are that we’ll see clouds break as the much cooler than average surface air mass continues over the area. We need to monitor this lower confidence forecast closely in case temperatures trend colder and clouds do not break as much as I currently expect.

(3) By late Saturday night into Sunday, again, in a low confidence forecast, there are indications that another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will traverse the area with increased cloud cover and some chance of precipitation. At this point, until we can better resolve the inconsistencies in the model guidance, I will keep the precipitation liquid. This will need to be closely monitored, however, in case temperatures trend colder.  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting .25″ to .50″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Thursday..
Low Confidence Thursday Night through Monday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 08 February 2021

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog becoming mostly sunny. High 73. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early then low clouds and patchy fog developing. Low 56. Light southerly wind becoming calm.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming mostly sunny. High 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 57. Light south southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers in the morning then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of morning rain then rain chances increasing to 40% by afternoon. High 73. Light southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 43. Wind shifting north northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with a scattered rain and rain showers mainly before noon. Slowly decreasing clouds by afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average less than 0.25″. High 54. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 34. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 53. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 35. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain developing in the afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 48. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 15 February 2021 through Sunday / 21 February 2021…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08 February)…………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (08 February)…………………………………… 6:14 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (09 February)……………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (09 February)………………………………………. 6:15 pm

Lagging Disturbance This Morning.. But Return to Sunshine Later Today – Wintry Weather Next Week? (11a, Fr/05Feb2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 05 February 2021

Not Available Today…
   
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Risks Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) In the wake of yesterday afternoon’s cold front, we’ve seen a lagging upper air low pressure disturbance move across the area this morning with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with even a few small hail reports. In the wake of this disturbance, we’ll see clearing skies later today into the weekend. East northeasterly surface winds may turn more east southeasterly late tonight into tomorrow.

(2) In a back ‘n forth move, a southward moving cold from the Mississippi Valley westward into the plains states now looks like it will move into the area by tomorrow afternoon with slightly cooler air building into the area tomorrow night into Sunday.

(3) As a series of upper level low pressure disturbances move through the area by late Monday and Monday night, winds will return more southerly late Sunday into Monday night ahead of another much stronger cold front that will surge southward by late in the day Tuesday. As a result, don’t be surprised to see increased cloud cover by Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday as this transition occurs. Based on the latest guidance, I will include slim rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday as even colder air moves into Texas from the north and a cloudy overrunning weather pattern becomes better established. No specific details yet, but, in a lower confidence forecast, wintry precipitation is a possibility over parts of our area by the latter part of next week in this overrunning pattern.  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting less than .25″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Tuesday..
Medium Confidence Tuesday Night through Thursday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 05 February 2021

TODAY…. Decreasing clouds becoming mostly sunny. High 60. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 43. Light easterly wind early becoming light southeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny as a cold front passes in the afternoon. High 73. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 38. Northerly winds diminishing and becoming light and variable after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 69. Light and variable wind becoming south southeasterly and increasing to 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 77. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 51. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny with a cold front passing in the afternoon. High 70. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting north northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph and gusty by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy and colder. Low 36. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph and gusty.

WEDNESDAY…. Thickening clouds becoming cloudy. Much colder. High 49. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a few sprinkles developing. Patches of freezing rain and sleet are possible in areas west through north of Austin. Low 33. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with a scattered rain and rain showers. Patches of freezing rain and sleet are possible in areas west through north of Austin. High around 40. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 11 February 2021 through Thursday / 18 February 2021…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 February)…………………………………. 7:20 am
Sunset this evening (05 February)…………………………………… 6:11 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (06 February)……………………………………… 7:19 am
Sunset tomorrow (06 February)………………………………………. 6:11 pm