ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
620pm CT – Saturday / 23 May 2020
… Not Much Change in my Forecast Thought …
… Threat of Heavier Rain and Potential Flooding Still in the Forecast for the Days Ahead …
… Be Weather Aware … Remember, Turn Around, Don’t Drown …
After a great outdoor day today, we continue to see an enhanced south southeasterly surface wind flow and our our atmosphere continues to grow more moist. While our atmosphere is been pretty stable today, things will changing a bit overnight into tomorrow.
As we make our way through the remainder of the weekend, there will be increasing atmospheric lift and atmospheric instability with the approach of an upper level low pressure disturbance from the west. We’ll see increasing rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning late tonight into tomorrow. Initially, by later into the day tomorrow and tomorrow night, it appears that rainfall amounts could potentially result in localized, nuisance flooding problems especially in urban/small stream areas and low water crossings.
By Memorial Day into Tuesday and Wednesday (and potentially into late week as well), the upper level low pressure disturbance coupled with an eastward slow moving and weakening cold front will move into the IH35 corridor as it loses its upper air steering currents and pulls up stationary in the vicinity of the IH35 corridor. As this occurs, it will cause additional atmospheric lift with slow moving rain showers and thunderstorms continuing. Periods of heavier rain appear quite likely; if this rainfall forecast verifies, flash flooding and river/stream flooding will become potentially more of a hazard.
The NWS/Weather Prediction Center updated rainfall guidance, from earlier today, now suggests that the IH35 corridor and a fairly wide area from north Texas (Dallas/Ft Worth area) south southwestward to Waco to Austin to San Antonio and then into the coastal plains and southeastern Texas may see upwards of 3 to 4 inches of rain – isolated higher amounts are certainly possible – over the next seven day period.
(Image Courtesy: NWS/Weather Prediction Center & NWS/West Gulf River Forecast Center)
I’m continuing to monitor..
tk
Reminders…
I encourage everyone to be weather aware. Know, in advance, the difference between a
NWS issued WATCH, ADVISORY and WARNING.
Always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate
when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..