Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin/South Central Forecast (Mon/13Feb2012)

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1:30pm CST.. Monday / 13 February 2012

TODAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 58 to 62. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear with patchy fog after midnight. Low 42 to 46. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Patchy AM fog.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 73 to 77. Light west wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early becoming mostly cloudy late with a 20% chance of rain after midnight. Low 59 to 63. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy in the morning with a 50% chance of morning rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through mid morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 68 to 72.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 45 to 49.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 66 to 70.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 43 to 47.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. High 65 to 69.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers. Low 44 to 48.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of morning rain showers and thunderstorms. High 61 to 65.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 49.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 60 to 64.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 20 Feb 2012 through Sunday / 26 Feb 2012…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 Feb)………….. 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (13 Feb)……………. 6:18 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (14 Feb)……………….. 7:12 am
Sunset Tuesday (14 Feb)………………… 6:19 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED THURSDAY / 9 FEBRUARY 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 410 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 15 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…American Elm 5.. Ash 10..

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/13Feb2012)

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Updated  130pm Monday / 13 February 2012

…. Clouds Decrease From West to East as a More Stable Pattern Takes Hold ….
…. Warmer Temperatures into Mid Week Before a Cold Front Arrives ….
…. A Cold Front with a Chance of Rain and Thunderstorms on Wednesday ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure over west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A surface low pressure area is over south Texas on the lower Texas coast. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a light and variable surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a general west to east upper air wind pattern prevails across the southern USA with an upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated from the central plains states southward into Texas. Another closed area of upper level low pressure has settled southeastward into California within a developing trough of upper air low pressure in the area. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are, in general, westerly across Texas.

A drier and more stable weather is taking hold across our area as clouds break from west to east. Temperatures will be warming through tomorrow with the increase in sunshine expected.

By tomorrow night into Wednesday.. clouds will be on the increase in advance of an eastward moving cold front which will cross our local area in the mid morning hours on Wednesday. Low level moisture and atmospheric instability will have increased enough for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

In the wake of the front, we’ll see drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Another disturbance and southward moving cold front combined with an increased south southeasterly surface wind flow and increased atmospheric moisture will result in increased clouds and rain chances again late Friday through Friday night and into early Saturday.

Rain chances will drop and a more stable atmosphere will return by late  Saturday through Sunday. As a result, sunshine will increase as we wrap up the weekend and head into next week.

My forecast confidence through this week is high to very high. My confidence for the forecast for next weekend is medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky with patchy fog by morning. Lows in the 40s with a southwesterly wind. For tomorrow, expect patchy morning fog otherwise a mostly sunny sky with highs in the 70s and southeasterly wind by afternoon.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel