Updated  130pm Monday / 13 February 2012

…. Clouds Decrease From West to East as a More Stable Pattern Takes Hold ….
…. Warmer Temperatures into Mid Week Before a Cold Front Arrives ….
…. A Cold Front with a Chance of Rain and Thunderstorms on Wednesday ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure over west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A surface low pressure area is over south Texas on the lower Texas coast. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a light and variable surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a general west to east upper air wind pattern prevails across the southern USA with an upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated from the central plains states southward into Texas. Another closed area of upper level low pressure has settled southeastward into California within a developing trough of upper air low pressure in the area. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are, in general, westerly across Texas.

A drier and more stable weather is taking hold across our area as clouds break from west to east. Temperatures will be warming through tomorrow with the increase in sunshine expected.

By tomorrow night into Wednesday.. clouds will be on the increase in advance of an eastward moving cold front which will cross our local area in the mid morning hours on Wednesday. Low level moisture and atmospheric instability will have increased enough for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

In the wake of the front, we’ll see drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Another disturbance and southward moving cold front combined with an increased south southeasterly surface wind flow and increased atmospheric moisture will result in increased clouds and rain chances again late Friday through Friday night and into early Saturday.

Rain chances will drop and a more stable atmosphere will return by late  Saturday through Sunday. As a result, sunshine will increase as we wrap up the weekend and head into next week.

My forecast confidence through this week is high to very high. My confidence for the forecast for next weekend is medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky with patchy fog by morning. Lows in the 40s with a southwesterly wind. For tomorrow, expect patchy morning fog otherwise a mostly sunny sky with highs in the 70s and southeasterly wind by afternoon.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel