Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Fri/10Feb2012)

Updated  130pm Friday / 10 February 2012

…. Cold Front Moves Across Texas Giving Us a Brief Break in the Clouds ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Again Sunday into Monday ….
…. Cooler Than Average Temps For Now; Warmer as We Move into Next Week ….

On this Friday… a cold front is pressing southeastward into the coastal plains of Texas as surface high pressure.. located to our north.. builds southward into Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a northerly surface wind is blowing across the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a through.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is situated from the northern Mississippi Valley south southwestward into Texas. The closed area of upper level low pressure has settled southward into western Mexico and has become, in a way, detached from the upper air flow across Texas and less of an influence (for now) in our weather. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are stronger and becoming more northwesterly across Texas.

As the cold front moves off the Texas coast, surface high pressure is building south into Texas from the plains states. Clouds are clearing rapidly behind the front with the break in clouds expected to last into tomorrow and tomorrow night. With this chilly air settling southward, I expect temperatures to reach to freezing or even below in the non-urban/outlying/low lying areas during the overnight/early morning hours tonight and again tomorrow night.

Another upper level trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure will move across the southwestern USA by late in the weekend and this will cause the front that has moved through the area today and is going into the Gulf of Mexico to return northward quickly as a warm front. As it does, low level moisture will begin to surge northward into the area late Saturday night into Sunday with much warmer temperatures, a rapid increase in cloud cover and the return to rain shower and thunderstorm chances by late Sunday into Sunday night and the early part of next week. As the warmer air mass takes hold and the warm front continues northward out of area by late Monday into Monday night, we’ll see more breaks in the clouds along with those above to well above average temperatures for Tuesday through Wednesday of next week.

Another relatively weak cold front will move southeastward through the area by late Wednesday into early Thursday of next week. At this point, I’ll include increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances.. although slim.. with this front.

My forecast confidence through tomorrow (Saturday) night is very high. My confidence for the forecast period starting Sunday and through Monday and through most of next week is medium with the frontal timing Wednesday night into early Thursday and the timing of precipitation being an issue.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky. Lows in the 30s with a northerly wind. For tomorrow, expect a mostly sunny sky with highs in the 50s and northeasterly winds.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel