Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin & South Central Texas Forecast (Thu/16Aug2012)

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Updated 130pm CDT.. Thursday / 16 August 2012

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 96 to 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 73 to 77. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly mid and late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. High 96 to 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms early.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 73 to 77. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. . High 94 to 98.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms early.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 72 to 76.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. . High 92 to 96.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms early.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 72 to 76.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. . High 91 to 95.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 72 to 76.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.  High 93 to 97.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 72 to 76.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 94 to 98.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 23 August 2012  through Wednesday / 29 August 2012…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation…  Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 August)………………. 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (16 August)………………… 8:11 pm
Sunrise Friday (17 August)……………………….. 6:59 am
Sunset Friday (17 August)………………………… 8:10 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED THURSDAY / 9 AUGUST 2012..                                                          (Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 2430 gr/cubic meter (High) – Up Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 4 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Up Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…Pigweed 4 …
Trees…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…None Reported…

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/16Aug2012)

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Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 16 August 2012

…. A Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Rain Chances Over the Weekend into Next Week….
…. A General and Beneficial Rainfall Possible ….

On this Thursday… a weak warm front extends from southern Alabama and central Mississippi northwestward across central Arkansas and southeastern Kansas. A stronger cold front is moving southeastward from eastern Kansas southwestward into central Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle westward into northern New Mexico then northward into western Colorado. A surface trough.. or a line.. of low pressure extends southward from the front over northeastern New Mexico into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure continues north of the strong cold front from eastern Montana southward into eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, has weakened and decreased in size a bit and is located over the southwestern USA with a broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes states southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area.

Overall, the large stable upper level high pressure area to our northwest continues its influence on our area weather by keeping a “lid” on the atmosphere and keeping clouds and rain chances minimal (or non-existent).

The basic dry and stable weather pattern will change as we continue through late week. The cold front will continue to drop deeper southeastward into Texas as more moisture and instability moves into place across our area by late tomorrow and through the weekend and into early next week. I’ll continue to increase the cloud cover a bit along with holding my scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance suggests upwards of one inch of beneficial rain could fall.. in a general sense.. across our area between Friday night and Monday night.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky early with some low clouds late with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds otherwise a partly cloudy sky with the chance of isolated afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms will continue with highs around 99 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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