Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Wed/15Aug2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Wednesday / 15 August 2012

…. A Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Rain Chances By the Weekend ….
…. A General and Beneficial Heavier Rainfall Possible ….

On this Wednesday… a weak stationary front extends from southern Mississippi westward across central and northern Louisiana and north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma then back northwestward into a surface low pressure area over southeastern Colorado. A surface trough.. or a line.. of low pressure extends southward from the southeastern Colorado low into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure continues north of the front over southern Illinois and Indiana with yet another located over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico with a third located just north of the four corners region of the intermountain west. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, has decreased in size a bit and is located over the southwestern USA with a broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes states southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area.

Overall, the large stable upper level high pressure area to our northwest continues its influence on our area weather by keeping a “lid” on the atmosphere.

The basic dry and stable weather pattern will prevail into late week. Another cold front will drop southeastward into Texas as more moisture and instability moves into place across our area by late Friday and through the weekend and into early next week. I’ll continue to increase the cloud cover a bit along with holding my scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance suggests upwards of one to two inches of beneficial rain could fall.. in a general sense.. across our area between Friday night and Monday night.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, a partly cloudy sky will continue with highs around 99 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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