Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/16Aug2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 16 August 2012

…. A Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Rain Chances Over the Weekend into Next Week….
…. A General and Beneficial Rainfall Possible ….

On this Thursday… a weak warm front extends from southern Alabama and central Mississippi northwestward across central Arkansas and southeastern Kansas. A stronger cold front is moving southeastward from eastern Kansas southwestward into central Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle westward into northern New Mexico then northward into western Colorado. A surface trough.. or a line.. of low pressure extends southward from the front over northeastern New Mexico into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure continues north of the strong cold front from eastern Montana southward into eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, has weakened and decreased in size a bit and is located over the southwestern USA with a broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes states southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area.

Overall, the large stable upper level high pressure area to our northwest continues its influence on our area weather by keeping a “lid” on the atmosphere and keeping clouds and rain chances minimal (or non-existent).

The basic dry and stable weather pattern will change as we continue through late week. The cold front will continue to drop deeper southeastward into Texas as more moisture and instability moves into place across our area by late tomorrow and through the weekend and into early next week. I’ll continue to increase the cloud cover a bit along with holding my scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance suggests upwards of one inch of beneficial rain could fall.. in a general sense.. across our area between Friday night and Monday night.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky early with some low clouds late with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds otherwise a partly cloudy sky with the chance of isolated afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms will continue with highs around 99 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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